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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares stall, dollar shies from Japan warning
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares stall, dollar shies from Japan warning
Mar 24, 2024 11:34 PM

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Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

*

Nikkei dips, S&P 500 futures flat

*

U.S. and European inflation data loom in holiday week

*

Japan warns on yen weakness ahead of 152.00 per dollar

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PBOC sets a firmer fix for yuan

(Updates prices at 0545 GMT)

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, March 25 (Reuters) - Asian shares dithered on

Monday as investors worried U.S. inflation data this week could

derail the outlook for lower interest rates, while the risk of

currency intervention from Japan stalled the yen's decline for

the moment.

China's central bank also engineered a rally in the yuan

after setting a firmer fix for the currency, nudging the dollar

lower more broadly.

The main data event of the week will be U.S. core personal

consumption expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday which is

seen rising 0.3% in February, keeping the annual pace at 2.8%.

Anything higher would be taken as a setback to hopes for a

Federal Reserve rate cut in June.

Many markets are closed for Easter on Friday, when the PCE

data is due for release, so the full reaction will have to wait

until next week.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was sufficiently dovish last week to

leave futures implying around a 74% chance of a June easing, up

from 55% a week earlier.

Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at a

policy conference on Friday, while Fed governors Lisa Cook and

Christopher Waller are also appearing this week.

Europe has its own inflation tests with consumer price data

out from France, Italy, Belgium and Spain, ahead of the overall

EU CPI report on April 3.

Sweden's central bank meets on Wednesday and is generally

expected to keep rates at 4.0%, though a surprise easing by the

Swiss National Bank (SNB) last week has markets anticipating a

dovish statement.

Expectations for falling borrowing costs globally have been

a boon for equities, with the S&P 500 up almost 10% for the year

to date. On Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures

slipped 0.1% each.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures barely budged, while FTSE

futures fell 0.14%.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

was flat, and just below eight-month highs,

while Chinese blue chips added 0.23%.

Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.86%, having spiked 5.6% last

week to a fresh all-time peak as the yen weakened.

While the Fed sounded dovish last week, it was hardly alone,

with the Swiss central bank (SNB) actually cutting rates while

the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) left

markets looking for easings from June onwards.

JAPAN JAWBONES THE YEN

"We think the dollar's rebound reflects the more explicitly

dovish stance of other major central banks - in particular the

SNB and the BoE," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets

economist at Capital Economics.

"The PBOC's apparent decision to let the renminbi weaken

sharply has added to the overall dollar-positive tone," he

added. "Overall, the greenback heads into the Easter holiday

period firmly on the front foot, and continued solid U.S.

economic data is likely to keep it that way."

Even a shift away from super-easy policies by the Bank of

Japan (BOJ) could not dent the dollar, as investors assumed it

was not the start of a series of hikes and futures imply a rate

of just 20 basis points by year end.

On Monday, the dollar was a shade lower at 151.25 yen

, having climbed 1.6% last week to a peak of 151.86.

Markets are wary of testing 152.00 as that is a level that has

drawn Japanese intervention in the past.

Indeed, Japan's top currency official on Monday warned the

yen's current weakness did not reflect fundamentals and

excessive moves were unwelcome.

The euro was pinned at $1.0816, having been

dragged down in the wake of the Swiss franc after the

SNB's shock rate cut.

The strength of the dollar had taken some shine off gold,

though the metal was edging higher again to $2,169 an ounce

, after hitting a record peak of $2,217.79 last week.

Oil prices were underpinned by Ukraine's attacks on Russian

refineries, along with data showing a fall in U.S. rig counts.

Brent rose 52 cents to $85.95 a barrel, while U.S.

crude firmed 56 cents to $81.19 per barrel.

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