SINGAPORE, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Asian stocks wobbled on
Tuesday while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields came under
pressure, with just a day to go before the expected start of the
Federal Reserve's easing cycle that could see policymakers
deliver an outsized rate cut.
Extended holidays in China and South Korea made for thin
trading conditions, with investors focused on Wednesday's Fed
decision as odds have crept up in the past week in favour of a
50-basis-point rate cut.
That kept the dollar languishing near its lowest level in
over a year against the yen at 140.70, further weighed
down by a drop in U.S. Treasury yields.
The two-year Treasury yield, which typically
reflects near-term rate expectations, was last at 3.5571%,
having fallen to a two-year low of 3.5280% overnight.
The benchmark 10-year yield was little changed
at 3.6195%.
Futures show that markets are now pricing in a 67%
chance that the Fed could ease rates by half a percentage point
at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday,
after a slew of media reports revived the prospect of more
aggressive easing.
"The case for a 50bps rate cut this week hinges in part on
the idea that rates are well above most estimates of neutral -
if officials judge that keeping policy in restrictive territory
for too long creates unnecessary risk for the economy then there
is no sense in dragging their feet," said Neil Shearing, group
chief economist at Capital Economics.
"The problem is this is a high bar for a large rate cut,
particularly at the start of the easing cycle. If nothing else,
it creates the impression that central bankers have made a
mistake and fallen behind the curve."
For the year, markets have priced in roughly 120bps worth of
easing by December.
Uncertainty over the scale of Wednesday's likely Fed rate
cut kept shares in Asia subdued, with MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up just 0.1%.
Japan's Nikkei fell 0.6%, dragged by technology
names as they tracked a decline on Wall Street.
Stock futures were mixed. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq
futures fell 0.12% and 0.05%, respectively, while
EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures tacked on
more than 0.3% each.
RATE DECISIONS
The Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) also
meet this week to discuss monetary policy, where both central
banks are seen keeping rates on hold.
Expectations of less aggressive easing by the BoE have in
turn kept sterling supported. It was last 0.09% lower
at $1.3204, but strayed not too far from August's peak of
$1.3269, its strongest level since March 2022.
"We forecast the BoE will keep the bank rate unchanged, at
5.0%, at its September policy meeting," said economists at ANZ.
"We expect it will adopt a gradualist approach in the early part
of its easing cycle."
Elsewhere in Asia, China's stuttering economic recovery
continued to weigh on sentiment, after data over the weekend
showed the country's industrial output growth slowed to a
five-month low in August, while retail sales and new home prices
weakened further.
Still, concerns over faltering Chinese demand for oil were
overshadowed by the ongoing impact of Hurricane Francine on
output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, sending oil prices rising on
Tuesday.
Brent crude futures rose 0.18% to $72.89 a barrel,
while U.S. crude futures gained 0.43% to $70.40 per
barrel.
Spot gold eased 0.06% to $2,580.51 an ounce.
(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)