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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks hold steady as more rate cuts loom
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks hold steady as more rate cuts loom
Sep 22, 2024 6:03 PM

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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

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Markets quiet as Japan on holiday, S&P 500 futures up 0.1%

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Rate cuts expected in Switzerland and Sweden this week

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Host of Fed speakers due as market wagers on another 50bp

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Asian stocks were steady on

Monday ahead of central bank meetings that are widely expected

to deliver two more rate cuts and key U.S. inflation figures

that should flash a green light for more easing there.

A holiday in Japan made for thin trading and MSCI's broadest

index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was

little changed, after bouncing 2.7% last week.

Japan's Nikkei was shut but futures were

trading at 38,300 compared to a cash close of 37,723. The index

rallied 3.1% last week as the yen eased from its highs and the

Bank of Japan (BOJ) signalled it was in no rush to tighten

policy further.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both

up 0.1%. The S&P is up 0.8% so far in September, historically

the weakest month for stocks, and has gained 19% year-to-date to

reach all-time highs.

More than 20 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges

on Friday, the busiest session since January 2021. Analysts at

BofA noted the S&P rises an average of 21% when there is no

recession in the 12-months after the start of Fed cuts.

Markets were still basking in the afterglow of the Federal

Reserve's half-point rate cut, with futures implying a 51%

probability it will deliver another outsized move in November.

"While the move was well flagged, its importance is hard to

overstate, given the Fed's role in USD liquidity conditions

worldwide," said Barclays economist Christian Keller.

"We note that initiating a cycle with a 50bp move without an

imminent financial crisis or jobs actually being lost is quite

unusual for the Fed," he added. "We thus think the step reveals

the Fed's determination to avoid a deterioration in labour

market conditions, or, in market jargon: to achieve a soft

landing."

At least nine Fed policy makers are speaking this week

including prepared remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, two

governors and New York Fed President John Williams.

MORE CUTS

Much will depend on what the Fed's preferred inflation

gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) show on

Friday. Analysts expect a 0.2% month-on-month rise taking the

annual pace to 2.7%, while the headline index is seen slowing to

just 2.3%.

The coming week also includes surveys on global

manufacturing, U.S. consumer confidence and durable goods.

The Swiss National Bank meets Thursday and markets are fully

priced for a quarter-point cut to 1.0%, with a 41% chance it

will ease by 50 basis points.

Sweden's central bank meets on Wednesday and is also

expected to ease by 25 basis points, again with some chance it

might go larger.

One bank not easing is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

which meets on Tuesday and is considered almost certain to hold

at 4.35% as inflation proves stubborn. (0#RBAWATCH>

Investors were also keeping a wary eye on negotiations to

avoid a U.S. government shut down with just days before the

current $1.2 trillion in funding runs out on Sept. 30.

Republican U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson on

Sunday proposed a three-month stopgap funding bill but now it

has to go to vote.

In currency markets, the dollar edged up to 143.95 yen

, having bounced 2.2% last week from a 139.58 low. The

euro gained almost 3% last week to reach 160.71 yen,

while holding firm on the dollar at $1.1163.

Japan's LDP, which has a parliamentary majority, will elect

a new leader on Sept. 27, with the winner to replace outgoing

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

The U.S. rate cut combined with lower bond yields helped

keep gold up at $2,620 an ounce, just off an all-time

peak of $2,625,59.

Net long positions in Comex gold futures hit their highest

level in four years last week, suggesting some risk of a

pullback in the near term.

Oil prices were steady having rallied around 4% last week on

hopes lower borrowing costs would support global economic growth

and demand.

Brent added one cent to $74.47 a barrel, while U.S.

crude also firmed one cent to $71.01 per barrel.

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