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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks rise; euro slides on French political quagmire
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks rise; euro slides on French political quagmire
Dec 1, 2024 11:01 PM

*

Euro slides, French bond futures dip on political

uncertainty

*

Chinese stocks boosted by robust manufacturing surveys

*

Trump buoys dollar with tariff threat on BRICS

*

Japan bond yields hit 16-year high on BOJ rate hike bets

(Updates to Asian afternoon trade, adds European futures)

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Asian stocks advanced on Monday

buoyed by a rally in tech and China shares, while the dollar

firmed in a crucial week for the U.S. interest rate outlook,

with the euro sliding as traders grappled with political

uncertainty in France.

Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump provided the dollar

support by warning the BRICS emerging nations against trying to

replace the greenback with any other currency, heaping pressure

on emerging market currencies.

"There'll be two drivers of market volatility this month.

The first remains the impact of Trump, especially future fiscal

settings and, increasingly, looming trade wars," said Kyle

Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com.

"The second is what the U.S. Federal Reserve does with

policy this month," Rodda said. "If the Fed delivers (a cut) and

provides sufficiently dovish guidance, it may green light some

sort of 'Santa Rally'."

The euro was struggling due to the risk of an imminent

collapse of the French government, with Prime Minister Michel

Barnier confronted with a Monday deadline to make more budget

concessions or face a no confidence vote.

The single currency slumped 0.53% to $1.0520

earlier in the day after touching a one-week high of $1.0597 on

Friday. French bond futures fell 0.25% and stocks in

Europe were poised for a much lower open, futures

indicated.

If the Barnier government falls, broader downward pressure

on the euro would quickly re-assert itself, including against

the Swiss Franc, said Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at

HSBC.

The outlook for monetary policy in the region added to the

drag on the euro, with the European Central Bank seen cutting

rates this month. Markets ascribe a 27% chance it might even

ease by 50 basis points on Dec. 12.

The Federal Reserve is also in focus, with Friday's monthly

payrolls report set to inform policymakers' thinking about

whether to cut rates again on Dec. 18.

A number of Fed officials are due to speak this week,

including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Traders

currently put the odds of a quarter-point reduction at about

66%.

That has left the dollar index, which measures the

currency against six major rivals, 0.24% higher at 106.28.

In Asia, Chinese shares got an additional boost from a

robust reading in a private manufacturing survey on Monday.

The survey results largely echoed an official survey on

Saturday, which showed manufacturing activity expanded modestly,

suggesting a blitz of stimulus is finally trickling through to

the world's second-largest economy.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng inched 0.16% higher, and

mainland Chinese blue chips added 0.6%.

In a holiday-shortened session on Friday, the S&P 500

and Nasdaq added 0.6% and 0.8% respectively to close at

all-time highs.

That provided the boost for tech shares in Asia, with Taiwan

stocks rising over 2% and South Korea's KOSPI gaining

0.38%. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.8%

Japanese government bond yields climbed to a 16-year high

after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in an interview

published at the weekend that another rate hike is "approaching

in the sense that economic data are on track."

However, Ueda also told the Nikkei that the central bank

wants to scrutinise developments in the U.S. economy as there

was a "big question mark" on its outlook, such as the fallout

from Trump's proposed tariff hikes.

The yield on two-year JGBs jumped 3 basis

points to 0.625%, the highest since November of 2008.

Market-implied odds of a quarter-point increase from the BOJ

this month stood at around 64%, with the steadily rising

expectations boosting the yen.

On Monday, the yen weakened 0.6% to 150.68 per

dollar but remained close to the six-week high of 149.47 it

touched on Friday.

In cryptocurrencies, ether hit a near six-month high

of $3,762.20 and was last up 2% at $3,674.44. Bitcoin was

last at $96,434, hovering close to the record high from Nov. 22

at $99,830.

Gold sank 1% to $2,627.71 under pressure from the

strong dollar, after sliding over 3% in November, its worst

monthly performance since September 2023.

Oil prices were lifted by the Chinese manufacturing data,

and as Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire

agreement.

Brent crude futures climbed 39 cents to $72.23 a

barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at

$68.37 a barrel, up 37 cents.

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