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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares turn cautious with Powell in focus, yen up as BOJ chief speaks
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares turn cautious with Powell in focus, yen up as BOJ chief speaks
Aug 24, 2024 10:54 PM

SYDNEY, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Asian shares stuttered on

Friday while the dollar rebounded from one-year lows as

investors were cautious ahead of a speech by the world's most

powerful central banker with markets looking for confirmation

U.S. rate cuts would start in September.

The Japanese yen gained 0.3% to 145.77 per dollar

while bond yields edged up as Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda

spoke before lawmakers.

Traders see very little chance that the BOJ could hike

rates in October after the recent sell-off, but Ueda stuck to

the script by saying the central bank stood ready to raise rates

if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast.

Data out early in the day showed Japan's core inflation

accelerated for a third straight month, but a slowdown in

demand-drive price gains suggest no urgency for any immediate

rate hikes.

Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global

Advisors, expects the stronger yen and reintroduction of energy

subsidies to slow inflation in the near-term.

"If the data evolves as we expect, it could mean that the

next BOJ hike may not come until December as fears of rapid

inflation ease to an extent."

On Friday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares

outside Japan fell 0.4% but were headed for a

weekly gain of 0.6%. The Nikkei was flat near three-week

highs.

China's blue chips gained 0.3%, although Hong

Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.4% while South Korea

dropped 0.5%.

Overnight, Wall Street fell as sentiment turned cautious

ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech in

Jackson Hole. Three Fed speakers on Thursday alluded to a rate

cut in September, with them voicing support for a "slow and

methodical" approach.

Taken together with surveys showing the U.S. economy

still growing at a healthy pace, markets slightly pared back the

chance of an outsized half-point cut in September to 24%, from

38% a day earlier. A quarter-point reduction is fully priced in.

Robert Carnell, regional head of research, Asia-Pacific, at

ING, noted there was still scope for Powell's speech to excite

or disappoint markets given the market pricing, but much will

depend on data.

"As any decision that deviates from market pricing will rest

on as yet unknown data, it is hard to see how Powell can commit

to much beyond some easing of some sort in September, and even

then, only barring data accidents," said Carnell.

Treasury yields slipped a little on Friday, having

gained overnight for the first time in five sessions. Ten-year

yields fell 2 basis points to 3.8426% in Asia and

were down 5 bps for the week.

Two-year yields also dropped 3 bps to 3.9845% and

were down 8 bps for the week.

Declining yields pressured the dollar to one-year

lows, although it did get some respite from selling pressure

overnight. The euro came off its one-year high at

$1.1119, with major resistance seen at $1.1139.

Wall Street futures rose between 0.2%-0.4%

and commodities looked set to end the week lower.

Brent crude futures were flat at $76.04 a barrel,

although they are down more than 3% for the week as swelling

U.S. crude stocks and a weakening demand outlook in China have

raised pessimism.

Gold prices are 0.7% lower in the week to $2,488.13

an ounce, having hit a record high of $2,531.6 just on Tuesday.

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