(Updates to Asia afternoon)
* Equities rebound as investors gird for earnings test
* Rising Middle East tensions keep oil prices near 1-month
high
* Inflation worries buoy yields, rate hike wagers
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, July 21 (Reuters) - Asian stocks snapped a
three-day losing streak on Tuesday as oil prices retreated from
a one-month high on mediation efforts in the Middle East, and
investors braced for corporate earnings that will test an
under-pressure AI trade.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they would impose a naval
blockade on Saudi Arabia, a move that could further disrupt
energy supplies, amid increased attacks between the U.S. and
Iran, even as efforts were being made to revive a fragile
ceasefire.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran
had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire,
intended to pave the way for a lasting agreement to end the war
that began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.
Brent crude futures eased 0.74% to $88.56 per barrel on
Tuesday as investors latched on to hopes of a resolution. Brent
hit a one-month high of $91.42 a barrel in the previous session.
"I think we've got a really strange situation that investors
are still trying to look at things with a glass half full view,
as we've seen this all before a few months ago and want the same
outcome," said Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX
Global in Sydney.
Twidale said concern that things could get out of hand and the
conflict escalate across the region had to be growing. "Feel we
might see one catalyst that pops things and then we are off to
the races," he said.
In stocks, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside
Japan was up more than 2% after dropping for
three straight sessions. Japan's Nikkei gained nearly 3%
while South Korea's KOSPI rose 4.5%.
"This looks more like a relief rally than an all-clear signal,"
said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. "The
rebound can continue if oil stays contained and tech earnings
validate AI spending, but both assumptions remain fragile."
U.S. stock futures rose sharply while European
futures were down 0.2%, indicating a muted open.
Global stocks, led by chipmakers, have been hit by severe
volatility in recent weeks as investors fret about high
valuations, profit growth and whether the investment in AI
infrastructure will yield tangible results.
AI'S EARNINGS TEST
Investor focus this week will be on earnings from companies
including Alphabet and Intel ( INTC ) to gauge the
impact of the war and whether the AI trade has more room to run
given sky-high profit expectations for the second quarter.
Strong earnings from Asian chip bellwethers Samsung
Electronics ( SSNLF ) and TSMC in recent weeks were
not enough to satisfy investor expectations, underscoring the
challenge facing the industry.
"While demand for AI hardware remains red-hot, with
companies barely able to keep up supply, investor expectations
for earnings have become increasingly lofty, rendering the
sector vulnerable even to a marginal adjustment in projections,"
said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.
"The economic backdrop is becoming more challenging as well,
with rising energy prices and higher interest rates complicating
the outlook and showing that even the AI hardware sector is not
entirely immune to such broader developments," Neumann said.
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have revived inflationary worries
and pushed Treasury yields higher. The 2-year note
yield, which typically moves in step with Federal Reserve
interest-rate expectations, was at 4.206% in Asian hours after
gaining 4 basis points on Monday.
Traders are pricing in 33 basis points of interest rate
increases this year.
The dollar was steady against most major currencies
supported by safe-haven flows. The euro last bought
$1.14145, while the Japanese yen was at 162.51 per
dollar, keeping traders on alert for intervention from Tokyo.
Sterling was nursing losses after comments from Andy
Burnham, Britain's seventh prime minister in a decade, spooked
investors over his fiscal policy. It was last at $1.344.
Burnham said he would stick to the previous government's fiscal
rules though he would use any flexibility within them.