* Equities rebound as investors gird for earnings test
* Rising Middle East tensions keep oil prices near 1-month
high
* Inflation worries buoy yields, rate hike wagers
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, July 21 (Reuters) - Asian stocks gained on
Tuesday as mediation efforts in the Middle East pushed oil
prices away from a one-month high, while investors braced for a
slate of corporate earnings that will test an under pressure AI
trade.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they would impose a naval
blockade on Saudi Arabia, a move that could further disrupt
energy supplies, amid attacks between the U.S. and Iran, even as
efforts were being made to revive a fragile ceasefire.
Brent crude futures eased 0.38% to $88.88 per barrel
in early trading on Tuesday as investors latched on to hopes of
a resolution. Brent hit its highest since mid-June at $91.42 a
barrel in the previous session.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran
had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire,
intended to pave the way for a lasting agreement to end the war
that began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.
"I think we've got a really strange situation that investors
are still trying to look at things with a glass half full view,
as we've seen this all before a few months ago and want the same
outcome," said Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX
Global in Sydney.
Twidale noted that concern has to be growing that things
could get out of hand and the conflict really escalates across
the region. "Feel we might see one catalyst that pops things and
then we are off to the races," he said.
In stocks, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan was 0.25% higher after dropping
for three straight sessions. Japan's Nikkei gained over
1% while South Korea's KOSPI rose nearly 3%.
U.S. stock futures were slightly higher while
European futures were down 0.6% in early trading.
Global stocks, led by chipmakers, have been hit by severe
volatility in recent weeks as investors fret about high
valuations, pace of profit growth and whether the investment
into AI infrastructure will yield tangible results.
AI'S EARNINGS TEST
Investor focus this week will be on earnings from Alphabet
and Intel ( INTC ) along with other firms to gauge the
impact of the war and whether the AI trade has more room to run
given sky-high profit expectations for the second-quarter.
Strong earnings from Asian chip bellwethers Samsung
Electronics ( SSNLF ) and TSMC in recent weeks were
not enough to satisfy investor expectations, underscoring the
challenge facing the industry.
"While demand for AI hardware remains red hot, with
companies barely able to keep up supply, investor expectations
for earnings have become increasingly lofty, rendering the
sector vulnerable even to a marginal adjustment in projections,"
said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.
"The economic backdrop is becoming more challenging as well,
with rising energy prices and higher interest rates complicating
the outlook and showing that even the AI hardware sector is not
entirely immune to such broader developments," Neumann said.
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have also brought back
inflationary worries and pushed Treasury yields higher. The
2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with
Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations, was at 4.206% in
Asian hours after gaining 4 basis points on Monday.
Traders are pricing in 33 basis points of interest rate
increases this year, with a hike fully priced in for October.
The dollar was steady against most major currencies
supported by safe-haven flows. The euro last bought
$1.14145, while the Japanese yen was at 162.51 per
dollar, keeping traders on alert for intervention from Tokyo.