* Nikkei to notch record quarterly rise; KOSPI soars
* Yen plumbs 40-year low as US rate expectations lift dollar
* Oil's war worries in the rearview mirror
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, June 30 (Reuters) - Asian stocks wobbled toward
the end of a sparkling quarter on Tuesday, while a resurgent
dollar pushed the yen to a four-decade low and was headed for a
fourth straight quarterly rise.
Japan's Nikkei, which was steady in early trade, is
set for a record rise of more than 36% for the quarter. South
Korea's chipmaker-driven KOSPI slipped 1%, though it was
set for an eye-popping second-quarter rise of nearly 65% having
more than doubled year-to-date.
The oil market's worries about war have receded into memory
with benchmark Brent crude futures at pre-war prices of
$72.49 a barrel, even though the interim ceasefire is strained.
"Now that we have oil prices down, it's reinforcing our view
of more trend-like growth around the world relative to sub-trend
that we were thinking about a couple of months ago, and feeding
into the better earnings story as well," said Kerry Craig,
strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Melbourne.
Wall Street indexes rose overnight and futures were flat in
the Asia morning. The dollar eyed a quarterly rise thanks to a
remarkable re-pricing of the U.S. interest rate outlook which
has flipped from cuts to hikes on U.S. economic strength and
inflationary pressures.
The dollar's rise has driven gold to its largest
quarterly fall in more than a decade while the yen
touched a four-decade trough of 162.41 per dollar in Asia trade,
setting traders on edge about possible Japanese intervention.
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities
stood ready to respond appropriately at any time.
The dollar index is up 1.3% this quarter, though this
week the euro regained the $1.14 chart level and the next
moves are likely to be driven by U.S. jobs data, due on Thursday
owing to Friday being a holiday, and a Wednesday appearance by
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Chinese manufacturing expanded in June thanks to high-tech
exports, figures on Tuesday showed, while European inflation and
U.S. consumer confidence and job openings highlight the data
schedule ahead in the session.
SELLING THE RECORD RALLY
Around Asia, Taiwan's benchmark is set for a more
than 40% rise this quarter while other regions cannot quite keep
pace with the semiconductor-led markets.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng has been a noticeable laggard
as it limped - mostly flat on Tuesday - to a 7.5% quarterly
drop.
The behaviour of big investors through the record quarter
has been unusual, with the surging index weighting of Asia's big
chipmakers driving foreigners to sell all the way up as they
rebalance portfolios and worry about diversification.
A net $17.3 billion has left South Korean equities in the
year so far, according to BNY.
"That gap between returns and flows fits a broader pattern
across Asia's tech-heavy markets: strong performance is
triggering rebalancing and profit-taking, not fresh
institutional buying," said BNY macro strategist Geoff Yu.
Solid gains for Europe's STOXX index, set to notch
a 9% rise for the quarter, and China's mainland blue-chip CSI300
, up about 10% this quarter, are catching investors'
attention.
"Some of the concerns that investors have around how much
tech exposure they have ... (has them) looking for other themes
- whether that's defence, renewables, and how they think about
building more robust diversification in their portfolio," said
J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Craig.
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Muralikumar
Anantharaman)