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Hang Seng up 1%; CSI300 up 2%
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China bond yields hit record lows
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Aussie dollar steady ahead of RBA rate decision
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Dec 10 (Reuters) - China stocks surged and
commodities and the Australian dollar found support on Tuesday
on Beijing's new promises of rate cuts and a boost to
consumption, while global stocks were wobbly ahead of a crucial
U.S. inflation reading.
Australia's central bank is expected to leave its cash rate
on hold at 4.35% later in the day. Overnight the S&P 500
fell 0.6% and futures dipped 0.1% in the Asia morning.
A 2.5% drop for chip titan Nvidia ( NVDA ), which edged a
fraction lower still in after-hours trade following China
opening an antitrust investigation, weighed on the mood.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
rose 0.3%, led by a 1% gain for the Hang Seng
index and a 2% rise in the blue chip CSI300
index.
Japan's Nikkei rose 0.4%.
A readout from China's Politburo on Monday had already
spurred a late surge in Hong Kong stocks and sent yields on
Chinese government bonds to record lows on bets there is help at
hand to lift sluggish spending and economic growth.
State media outlet Xinhua reported the top Communist Party
officials had shifted the monetary policy stance from "prudent"
to "moderately loose," mirroring their response in previous
crises, and would stabilise markets and "vigorously" boost
consumption.
"The statement signals potential rate cuts, fiscal expansion
and asset buying ahead," said analysts at ANZ in a note, though
with the magnitude unclear and further details possibly coming
later in the week from the Central Economic Work Conference.
The stocks rally lifted China's major indexes to one-month
highs with consumer shares notching large gains.
But the runaway rally in Chinese bonds, which extended on
Tuesday to drive 10-year and 30-year yields
to record lows suggests some investors doubt the
measures are going to lift long-run growth in China.
"In the past demand for credit outstripped supply, making it
straightforward for the PBOC to boost credit growth by cutting
policy rates," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China
economics at Capital Economics.
"By contrast, there is now limited appetite among households
and large parts of the private sector to take on more debt, even
at lower rates. That leaves most of the burden of stimulating
the economy on fiscal policy."
WAITING ON CPI
Australia's currency caught a boost from China's
policy shift, as did iron ore miners, with Fortescue up
almost 7% and Rio Tinto rising more than 5%.
Traders left the Aussie broadly steady at $0.6428 ahead of
an 0330 GMT policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
With no change expected, focus was on the tone and media
conference at 0430 GMT for guidance around inflation and the
bank's next policy move.
The U.S. consumer price report is out Wednesday and the core
is seen holding at 3.3% for November, which should be no
impediment to an easing. Interest rate futures imply an 85%
chance of a rate cut next week is priced in by the market.
Traders are also expecting rate cuts in Europe and Canada
later this week and are leaning towards a cut in Switzerland as
authorities may like to tap the brakes on the franc's relentless
rise against the euro.
The euro traded at $1.0548 and 0.9272 francs. The
Japanese yen, which was the best-performing G10
currency in November as expectations have grown for a December
rate hike in Japan, was a fraction weaker at 151.45 per dollar.
Positioning data shows speculators flipped to a long yen
position last week for the first time in more than
a month.
Oil prices rose on Monday on the news of China's policy
plans and as the sudden fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
highlighted instability in the Middle East and geopolitical
risk.
Brent crude futures were steady at $72.15 a barrel
in early trade on Tuesday. Gold hovered at $2,664 an
ounce while bitcoin fetched $98,040.