(Updates ahead of Wall Street open, adds details on European
market rally)
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Euro, pound, Swiss franc all rise against the dollar
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European stocks climb to fresh record high
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GDP data shows UK avoids recession
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Oil close to lowest level of the year
By Marc Jones
LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Europe's main stock markets
and currencies rallied on Thursday on growing optimism about a
peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, and as bond buyers
overcame the latest wobble triggered by stubbornly high U.S.
inflation data.
Persisting trade war concerns kept gold close to an all-time
high after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his plans to
impose reciprocal tariffs on every country that has duties on
U.S. goods.
The euro's bounce left it at just above $1.04.
Trump held what he described as great talks with Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy on
Wednesday and said he saw a good possibility of ending the near
three-year-long war.
Bets that might also lead to an easing of Russian oil
sanctions saw Brent crude test its lows of the year and sent the
rouble on a 3% tear. Europe's record-high STOXX 600
added to its recent 8% surge too, although Wall
Street's S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were a
fraction weaker.
ING currency strategist Chris Turner said a peace deal in
Ukraine could be an "important positive" for European countries
if it delivered lower energy prices and led to a Marshall
Plan-style rebuilding of Ukraine.
"The rally may have a little further to run," he added,
although the stiff headwinds of potential U.S. tariffs on Europe
and high U.S. rates "will limit the EUR/USD upside".
As well as a higher euro, the Swiss franc was up
against the dollar and Britain's pound rose 0.3% as
data showed the British economy saw unexpected modest pick-up at
the end of last year.
Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei had gained 1.3%
thanks to a much weaker yen. MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose as much
as 1.2% to hit its highest since early December.
Chinese blue chips saw a late dip to end their day
down 0.2%, as did Hong Kong's Hang Seng index after it
had hit another four-month high.
The bond markets were still digesting Wednesday's
January U.S. consumer price data that posted the biggest rise in
nearly 1-1/2 years. The closely watched core inflation index,
which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.4% in the month,
above forecasts for 0.3%.
With the Federal Reserve already signalling no rush to cut
rates further, investors scaled back expectations of more policy
easing from the Federal Reserve this year to just 28 basis
points, equivalent to just one cut.
Benchmark Treasury yields - which tend to drive global
borrowing costs - had jumped to a three-week top of 4.66%
. But they were receding again on Thursday, drooping
back to 4.6% while Germany's 10-year Bund yield was
dipped to 2.43%, having jumped 12 basis points over the previous
two sessions.
Germany's ECB rate setter Joachim Nagel had reiterated on
Wednesday that it needed to take rate cuts gradually.
Analysts at Barclays, meanwhile, expect only one rate cut at
most from the Fed this year.
"Risks are now skewing toward the Fed delivering no cuts
this year, and we are putting somewhat more weight on
off-baseline scenarios where rate hikes enter the conversation,"
they said in a note to clients.
'JEALOUSY AND RAGE'
Ukraine's government bonds continued to climb on the peace
hopes, although there was worry among top European politicians
that a deal was being forced on Kyiv and could encourage more
Russian aggression in future.
Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovile Sakaliene warned that
Europe should not fall "under the illusion that Mr. Trump and
Mr. Putin are going to find the solution for all of us" as that
would be a "deadly trap".
"Frigid spinster Europe is mad with jealousy and rage,"
Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president, wrote on Telegram.
He said Europe had not been warned of the Putin-Trump call or
consulted about its content.
"It shows its real role in the world," he said. "Europe's
time is over."
Not for Europe's carmakers though it seemed. They raced 3.6%
higher in the sector's best day in nearly a year. Russia
was a highly profitable market for many major firms before
Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Back in FX markets, the dollar was 0.2% weaker
at 154.15 yen, having jumped 1.3% on Wednesday. The yen was
licking its wounds at 153.95 yen per dollar, although it
remained up about 2% for the year so far.
Among the main commodities, oil prices extended their recent
fall as the hopes for a Russia and Ukraine peace deal bolstered
the possibility of an easing of Russian oil sanctions that have
disrupted supply flows.
U.S. crude fell 1.4% to $70.36 a barrel, after
dropping 2.7% overnight, and Brent was also 1.4% lower
at $74.12, having dropped 2.4% overnight.
Gold rose 0.4% to $2,915 per ounce, not far from its
record high of $2,942.70 hit on Tuesday.