(Updates prices at 4:38 p.m. ET (2038 GMT))
* Wall Street indexes surge, but notch large monthly
losses
* STOXX 600 fell 8% in March, biggest monthly loss since
2022
* Euro zone inflation rises on oil shock, data shows
By Chris Prentice and Elizabeth Howcroft
NEW YORK/PARIS, March 31 (Reuters) - Global equity and
bond markets jumped on Tuesday on speculation of a potential
de-escalation in the Middle East conflict that has driven the
biggest one-month increase in global oil prices in history.
Despite the rally, financial assets have suffered through a
gloomy month on fears of rising inflation and stagnant growth.
The surge in oil prices on the back of the worst energy supply
interruption ever has sent investors to the exits in both the
bond and stock markets throughout March.
Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index fell 8% in
March, logging its steepest monthly decline in nearly four years
and ending an eight-month string of gains.
Tuesday's rebound was driven by unconfirmed reports that
Iran's president - who has less power than the country's supreme
leader - said the country was ready to end the month-long
war. Global stocks were also boosted by an earlier Wall Street
Journal report that U.S. President Donald Trump had told aides
he is willing to end the military campaign even if the crucial
Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
However, Trump has contradicted his own message at times, as
he also warned that the U.S. would "obliterate" Iran's energy
plants and oil wells if it does not open the strait, which is
used to transit roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas.
Equity markets are "taking the U.S. administration at their
word, that they're going to end the war," said Colin Graham,
head of multi-asset strategies at Dutch asset manager Robeco.
"They haven't moved to day two, where the Strait of Hormuz
could still be closed."
Brent crude futures for May settled up 4.94% at
$118.35 per barrel ahead of expiry.
The Brent June contract settled down $3.42 at
$103.97 per barrel and U.S. crude futures settled down $1.50 or
1.46% at $101.38.
The average U.S. retail price of gasoline hit $4 a gallon on
Monday.
THE WAR'S GLOBAL REACH
The war, which began with the U.S. and Israel launching
coordinated strikes against Iran in late February, has sent
shockwaves across global markets and raised the risk of a
worldwide recession.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe
rose 18.07 points, or 1.88%, to 978.94.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
2.49% to 46,341.51, the S&P 500 gained 2.91% to 6,528.52
and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.83% to 21,590.63.
"What we've seen from a messaging standpoint from the
administration is a bit of indication they may start to either
wind down or pivot," said Alonso Munoz, chief investment officer
at Hamilton Capital Partners.
"You get these periods where the market gets so oversold
that you just have relief rallies on any indication that there's
good news."
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.41%, and
Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index gained 0.40%.
Still, the Iran conflict has left the S&P 500 and the Dow
with their deepest quarterly declines since 2022 as investors
worry that a wave of higher fuel costs could hurt demand for
goods and services, while forcing the Federal Reserve to raise
interest rates to contain inflation.
U.S. job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell more than
expected in February and hiring dropped to the lowest level in
nearly six years, government data showed on Tuesday.
INFLATION AND GROWTH FEARS
The oil shock pushed euro zone inflation above the European
Central Bank's 2% target in March.
Government bond yields had retreated from multi-year highs
at the start of the week after rising sharply this month because
of the conflict, with investors appearing to refocus on the risk
of weaker growth stemming from the energy shock.
U.S. Treasury prices rallied, sending yields lower, after a
month of heavy selling, as the de-escalation hopes boosted
demand for government debt.
The German two-year yield fell 3.3 basis points
to 2.588%.
The European Union's energy chief has told governments to
prepare for "prolonged disruption" to energy markets as a result
of the war, ahead of an emergency meeting on Tuesday.
"If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the next week or
two, then I think we'll be raising our probabilities of
recession in our scenario analysis," Robeco's Graham said,
adding that this was not yet the case.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of currencies, fell 0.69% to 99.86, but
remained on course for a monthly gain.
The Japanese yen rose 0.62% against the greenback to
158.73 per dollar.
Japan's finance minister said that the government was ready
to respond "on all fronts" against foreign exchange volatility,
underscoring Tokyo's alarm over the yen's recent slide.
Spot gold rose 3.52% to $4,669.09 an ounce but was
still poised to end the month down over 10%. U.S. gold futures
settled 2.7% higher at $4,678.60.