(Updated at 2:30 p.m. ET (1830 GMT)
* Global equities gain on hopes of an end to Iran
conflict
* STOXX 600 rises on day, still set for worst month since
2022
* Euro zone inflation rises on oil shock, data shows
By Chris Prentice and Elizabeth Howcroft
NEW YORK/PARIS, March 31 (Reuters) - Global equity and
bond markets jumped on Tuesday on speculation of a potential
de-escalation in the Middle East conflict that has driven the
biggest one-month increase in global oil prices in history.
Despite the rally, financial assets suffered through a
gloomy month on fears of rising inflation and stagnant growth.
The surge in oil prices on the back of the worst energy supply
interruption ever has sent investors to the exits in both the
bond and stock markets throughout March.
Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index fell 8% in
March, logging its steepest monthly decline in nearly four years
and ending an eight-month string of gains.
Tuesday's rebound was driven by unconfirmed reports that
Iran's president - who has less power than the country's supreme
leader - said the country was ready to end the month-long
war. Global stocks were also boosted by an earlier Wall Street
Journal report that Trump had told aides he is willing to end
the military campaign even if the crucial Strait of Hormuz
remains largely closed.
However, Trump has contradicted his own message at times, as he
also warned that the U.S. would "obliterate" Iran's energy
plants and oil wells if it does not open the strait, which is
used to transit roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas.
Equity markets are "taking the U.S. administration at their
word, that they're going to end the war," said Colin Graham,
head of multi-asset strategies at Dutch asset manager Robeco.
"They haven't moved to day two, where the Strait of Hormuz
could still be closed."
Front-month Brent crude futures held above $110 a barrel
after Iran attackedand set ablaze a fully loaded oil tanker off
Dubai early on Tuesday. Brent rose nearly 5% to $118.38 a barrel
, on track for its biggest monthly gain on record ahead
of the contract's expiry.
The next-month Brent contract, however, was down
2.5% to $104.65 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 63 cents to
$102.26 a barrel.
The average U.S. retail price of gasoline hit $4 a gallon on
Monday.
THE WAR'S GLOBAL REACH
The war, which began with the U.S. and Israel launching
coordinated strikes against Iran in late February, has sent
shockwaves across global markets and raised the risk of a
worldwide recession.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe
rose 16.72 points, or 1.7%, to 977.59. For the month, the index
has lost about 9%.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
rose 2.2% to 46,203.56, the S&P 500 added 2.5% to
6,502.69 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.5% to
21,513.34.
Still, the S&P 500 and the Dow were on track for their biggest
monthly decline in nearly four years, down 5.3% and 7.7%,
respectively.
"What we've seen from a messaging standpoint from the
administration is a bit of indication they may start to either
wind down or pivot," said Alonso Munoz, chief investment officer
at Hamilton Capital Partners.
"You get these periods where the market gets so oversold
that you just have relief rallies on any indication that there's
good news."
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.41%, and
Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index gained 0.40%.
U.S. job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell more
than expected in February and hiring dropped to the lowest level
in nearly six years, government data showed on Tuesday.
INFLATION AND GROWTH FEARS
The oil shock pushed euro zone inflation above the European
Central Bank's 2% target in March.
Government bond yields had retreated from multi-year highs at
the start of the week after rising sharply this month because of
the conflict, with investors appearing to refocus on the risk of
weaker growth stemming from the energy shock.
U.S. Treasury prices rallied, sending yields lower, after a
month of heavy selling, as the de-escalation hopes boosted
demand for government debt.
The German two-year yield fell 4.8 basis points
to 2.574%.
The European Union's energy chief has told governments to
prepare for "prolonged disruption" to energy markets as a result
of the war, ahead of an emergency meeting on Tuesday.
"If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the next week or
two, then I think we'll be raising our probabilities of
recession in our scenario analysis," Robeco's Graham said,
adding that this was not yet the case.
The U.S. dollar fell, but remained on course for a monthly
gain.
The Japanese yen rose 0.57% against the greenback to
158.82 per dollar.
Japan's finance minister said that the government was ready to
respond "on all fronts" against foreign exchange volatility,
underscoring Tokyo's alarm over the yen's recent slide.
Spot gold rose 2.25% to $4,612.60 an ounce but was
still poised to end the month down over 10%. U.S. gold futures
settled 2.7% higher at $4,678.60.