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Oil falls on reports Iran sought a ceasefire
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U.S. stock indexes follow global counterparts higher
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Busy central bank week ahead
(Updates asset prices at 2:34 p.m. ET)
By Isla Binnie
NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - Stock indexes stayed
higher after last week's losses and a barrel of oil got $1
cheaper on Monday as investors took heart from reports that Iran
was seeking to end hostilities with Israel, and stayed confident
in their predictions for a busy week of central bank meetings.
Oil prices fell after the Wall Street Journal reported Iran
was seeking a truce following a surprise attack from Israel on
Friday that raised fears of wider conflict, sent oil soaring,
and weighed on stocks.
Sources told Reuters that Iran has asked regional allies to
press U.S. President Donald Trump to influence Israel to agree
to a ceasefire.
Geopolitics still loomed, with early cracks threatening to
emerge among Group of Seven leaders, who are meeting in Canada.
Officials gave conflicting statements about whether Trump would
sign a draft statement calling for de-escalation of the Middle
East conflict.
"In terms of an escalation, where the U.S. is going to get
involved or where it's really going to be all-out war, where
nothing is sacred anymore, I don't think that's going to
happen," said Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan
Capital Securities in New York.
"It's probably a short-lived situation, so I think the
market is rallying on that."
Following a torrid session on Friday, Brent crude futures
settled at $73.23 per barrel, down $1.00 or 1.35%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.75% higher in
afternoon trading, slightly off the morning's highs. The S&P 500
gained 0.90% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.45%.
U.S. Treasury yields rose after initially falling on the
reports of Iran's outreach to Israel, with the 10-year notes
yielding 4.452%, from 4.424% late on Friday.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe
marched 1.09% higher after the U.S. open and stayed stronger on
the day to be quoted at 0.85%.
Earlier in the trading day, Europe's STOXX 600 had
been boosted by a rebound in travel stocks and Gulf
stocks also recovered.
Chinese blue chips gained after data showed rising
retail sales and industrial output in line with expectations.
FED MEETING IN FOCUS, MORE DATA TO COME
A prolonged rise in oil prices could contribute to
inflation, but the movements of recent days are unlikely to
strongly influence discussions when the Federal Reserve meets on
Wednesday, said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at
Manulife John Hancock Investments.
"The Fed is data-dependent, and it takes time for the impact
of oil prices (higher or lower) to feed into the inflation
numbers," Roland said.
"In our view, the Fed likely keeps the markets waiting with
no change to the view of between 2-3 rate cuts of 0.25% by the
end of the year. The bond market is still pricing in two cuts
over the year, we will see if this week changes things."
U.S. retail sales data is due on Tuesday and may show a
pullback in autos, dragging the headline number down even as
core sales edge higher. A market holiday on Thursday means
weekly jobless claims figures are out on Wednesday.
Central banks in Norway and Sweden also meet this week, with
the latter expected to trim rates.
The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and is considered
certain to cut by at least a quarter point to take rates to
zero, with some chance it may go negative given the strength of
the Swiss franc.
The Bank of Japan holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is
widely expected to hold rates at 0.5%, while leaving open the
possibility of tightening later in the year.
There is also speculation it could consider slowing the
rundown of its government bond holdings from next fiscal year.
The calmer mood across markets saw some of gold's safe-haven
bid reverse and it was down 1.24% to $3,389.71 an ounce..