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Dollar, U.S. bond yields hold near multi-month highs
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Global shares soft with focus on Nvidia ( NVDA ) results
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BOJ's Ueda stays vague on timing of next rate hike
(Updates at 0903 GMT)
By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee
LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar and bond
yields held near multi-month peaks on Monday on expectations the
Federal Reserve would slow its pace of easing, while global
shares were mostly lower, with investors waiting for Nvidia's ( NVDA )
earnings release later in the week.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's new administration is
beginning to take shape with nominations to health and defense
roles last week, but two key positions for financial markets,
Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative, are yet to be
filled.
Trump's pick of vaccine sceptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for
the top U.S. health job has already led to a fallout in the
health care sector, with drugmakers sliding at the end of last
week.
"It should be a quieter week as the recent relentless wave
of U.S. macro and political news flow in theory slows down with
the main story on this front being on potential political
appointments for the new Trump administration," said Deutsche
Bank head of global economics and thematic research Jim Reid.
Trump's plans for lower taxes and higher tariffs are
expected to spur inflation and reduce the Fed's scope to ease
interest rates.
U.S. Treasury yields held near multi-month highs on Monday,
having been bolstered by bets of less aggressive Fed rate cuts
down the line.
The benchmark 10-year yield steadied at 4.4256%,
while the two-year yield last stood at 4.2823%.
Futures imply a 60% chance of the Fed easing by a
quarter-point in December and have only 75 basis points of cuts
priced in by the end of 2025, compared with more than 100 a few
weeks ago.
That has come on the back of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's
comments last week signalling that borrowing costs could remain
higher for longer.
"With changes afoot in immigration policy, tariff policy,
and fiscal policy, Fed officials would tread more lightly anyway
in view of the inflationary impact that these policies pose,"
said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at
Macquarie.
The shift in outlook for U.S. rates and inflation lifted the
dollar to a one-year high last week.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against a
basket of six others, was steady at 106.69, just below last
week's peak of 107.07.
Sterling last bought $1.2618, languishing near last
week's six-month low, while the euro stood at $1.0547.
GLOBAL STOCKS SOFT
Global equity markets were slightly lower as investors took
stock of latest developments with Trump's top team and the
outlook for monetary policy.
MSCI's broadest gauge of world stocks was
down 0.1%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 was off
0.2%. Major indexes in Frankfurt, London and
Paris were down 0.1% to up 0.2%.
Nasdaq futures were gaining 0.5%, after the index
slid for five straight days last week. S&P 500 futures
edged 0.1% higher ahead of Nvidia's ( NVDA ) third-quarter results on
Wednesday, where analysts expect the artificial intelligence
chip leader to record a jump in revenue.
Shares of Nvidia ( NVDA ) are up nearly 200% this year, with its
hefty weighting in the S&P 500 partially responsible for the
index's charge to record highs this year.
But its blistering multi-year run has also raised the bar
for earnings outperformance and a slip-up could fuel worries
that the market's AI hopes have outstripped reality.
In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan advanced 0.2%.
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.1%, dragged down by a
decline in technology shares.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Monday the
central bank will keep raising rates if economic and price
developments move in line with its forecasts, but made no
mention of whether a hike could come in December.
However, he later said in a press conference that keeping
inflation-adjusted real interest rates low for too long could
cause excessive inflation and force the BOJ into hiking interest
rates rapidly.
Ueda's comments were closely watched by investors for clues
on the BOJ's next rate hike.
The Japanese currency has fallen some 7% since
October against a resurgent dollar and last week weakened past
the 156 per dollar level for the first time since July, keeping
traders on alert for any intervention from Japanese authorities.
It was last marginally lower at 154.61 per dollar.
In commodities, oil prices were mixed. Brent crude futures
were flat $71.03 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures
dipped 0.2% to $66.88.
Spot gold jumped 1.1% to $2,590 an ounce, recovering
from its sharp fall last week.