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Traders evaluate diplomatic signals between Russia and
Ukraine
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European defence stocks fall as traders take profit
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Markets eye Fed's Jackson Hole symposium for policy hints
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Bonds steady after recent selloff
(Updates with close of US stock trading)
By Alun John and Noel Randewich
LONDON/SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street
stocks fell, European equities rose and oil edged down on
Tuesday as traders assessed the previous day's White House talks
on the war in Ukraine, and looked ahead to a key meeting of
central bankers.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped Russia's Vladimir
Putin would move forward on ending the war in Ukraine but
conceded the Kremlin leader may not want to make a deal.
On Monday, Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy the United States would help guarantee Ukraine's
security in any agreement to end Russia's war there, though the
extent of any assistance was not immediately clear.
Declines in Nvidia ( NVDA ) and other heavyweight artificial
intelligence stocks pulled the S&P 500 down 0.6% and the
Nasdaq down 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
ended roughly flat after briefly touching an all-time
high.
Europe's broad STOXX600 index rose 0.7%,
outperforming Asian stocks, which fell slightly.
Europe's gains were capped by declines in defence names,
with the STOXX Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defense index
down 2.6%, as traders saw the talks as a chance to
take profit in the sector after a strong run.
With any breakthrough in talks, "I think European stocks are
likely the biggest winners, and within that framework, I think
industrial companies, construction for rebuilding materials, and
financial companies," said Michael Arone, chief investment
strategist at State Street Investment Management.
Losers could include shares in energy and defence after
their recent gains, he said.
Energy markets were also assessing the chance of an end of
the war in Ukraine, and oil prices fell on speculation that
progress in the talks could lead to the lifting of sanctions on
Russian crude, boosting supply.
The moves were not dramatic though, and some analysts said
developments were unlikely to jolt oil and gas markets
significantly. Brent crude futures were down 57 cents at 66.06 a
barrel, with U.S. crude down 77 cents at $62.65.
EYES ON THE FED
The other main event for markets this week is the Federal
Reserve's August 21-23 Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair
Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook and the
U.S. central bank's policy framework.
His remarks will be closely watched as the Fed grapples with
sticky inflation and signs of slowing growth. Futures markets
imply at least two 25 basis point rate cuts this year,
reflecting a view that the Fed will not view inflation as a
long-term problem.
"There's an anxiety about Powell's comments at Jackson
Hole," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird
Private Wealth Management. "Some investors fear the Fed is going
to be a bit behind the curve and higher interest rates have a
big impact on growth stocks."
Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates dramatically,
and has publicly speculated about replacing Powell before his
term ends next year.
"The question is to what degree is the Fed happy to ignore
the inflation data because they think it is distorted by
tariffs," said Ian Samson, portfolio manager at Fidelity
International.
"If you look out one year, you're not going to have Powell
as Fed chair, there are a couple of governors to replace, so the
balance is clearly going towards people who are willing to look
through tariffs, and thus continue to lower interest rates."
Such a scenario would likely bode well for equities, help
shorter-dated government bonds, and weigh on the dollar, though
the impact for longer-dated bonds is less clear, said Samson,
adding that he was largely avoiding the long end of the U.S.
yield curve.
The S&P 500 will end 2025 just below current near-record
levels, reflecting tempered optimism amid ongoing concerns over
the economic impact of Trump's global tariffs and uncertainty
surrounding Fed's rate cuts, according to a new Reuters poll.
Longer-dated yields have been rising worldwide in recent
months. German and British 30-year yields have tested
multi-decade highs, and the latter rose sharply late on Monday.
Bond markets were calmer on Tuesday. U.S., German and
British government bond yields all fell across their respective
curves, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down 3 basis
points at 4.31%.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,
was last up 0.15% on the day.
Gold dipped 0.4% to $3,317.71 an ounce.