(Updates ahead of US market open)
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Stocks rise as US stays out of Middle East conflict for
now
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Oil tumbles as much as 3%, but still set for weekly gain
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European nations to hold talks with Iran in Switzerland
By Marc Jones
LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - Stock markets ticked higher
on Friday while oil headed for its biggest daily drop since
April after President Donald Trump pushed back a decision on
U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.
Rising risks from the Middle East have loomed large on
the world's top indexes again this week.
Europe's main bourses were all between 0.5%-1.4% higher
after similar gains across Asia, although
it was touch and go whether it would be enough to prevent a
second straight weekly loss for MSCI's main world index.
Israel bombed targets in Iran, and Iran fired missiles at
Israel overnight as the week-old war continued but Friday's
market moves, which also included a modest drop in the dollar
, showed an element of relief.
That was largely pinned on Thursday's statement from the
White House that Trump will decide in the next two weeks -
rather than right away - whether the U.S. will get involved in
the war.
European foreign ministers were meeting their Iranian
counterpart in Geneva on Friday, seeking a path back to
diplomacy over its contested nuclear programme.
The relief the U.S. wasn't charging into the conflict
sent oil prices down as low as $76.10 per barrel,
although they are still up 4% for the week and 20% for the
month.
"Brent crude is down 2.5% today in the clearest sign that
fears over an imminent escalation in the Israel/Iran conflict
have eased," MUFG strategist Derek Halpenny said.
Gold, another traditional safe-haven play for traders,
was also lower on the day and Nasdaq, S&P 500, and
Dow futures had all moved into the green as Wall Street
prepared to get going again having been closed on Thursday.
Asian shares had gained 0.5% overnight
thanks to a 1.2% jump in Hong Kong's Hang Seng and as newly
elected President Lee Jae Myung's stimulus plans saw South
Korea's Kospi top 3,000 points for the first time since
early 2022.
China's central bank held its benchmark lending rates steady
as widely expected in Beijing, while data from Japan showed core
inflation there hit a two-year high in May, keeping pressure on
the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes.
That in turn lifted the yen and pushed down the
export-heavy Nikkei in Tokyo.
OIL RETREATS
The dollar was ending an otherwise positive week on a modest
downer, with the euro up 0.3% against the U.S.
currency at $1.1527 and the pound 0.2% higher at $1.3494.
The U.S. bond market, which was also closed on Thursday,
resumed trading with the key 10-year Treasury bond yield
flat at 4.39%, while German 10-year yields
, which serve as Europe's borrowing benchmark rate,
fell 2.5 basis points to 2.49%.
Gold prices eased 0.8% to $3,345 an ounce,
leaving them set for a weekly loss of 2.5%.
But the main commodity market focus remained oil. Brent
crude futures were last down $2.45, or around 3%, at
$76.43 a barrel in London although they were still on track to
end the week almost 3% higher.
PVM analyst John Evans said oil producers' "nightmare
scenario" was that Iran or its proxies could block the Strait of
Hormuz, something which has never happened and through which 20
million barrels is shipped each day.
JPMorgan estimates that amounts to about 20% of all global
oil trade and 30% of seaborne oil trade.
"The market is currently assigning a probability below
20% to this happening," JPMorgan's Francesco Arcangeli wrote in
a note, estimating thought that a full closure of the Strait
could see oil prices surge to $120-$130 a barrel.