* U.S. Treasury futures edge higher after global bond
rout overnight
* Traders move to price in hikes for BoE and ECB this
year; Fed seen leaving rates on hold
* Oil prices retreat; shares steady
By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, March 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on
Friday while bonds were nursing losses, after global central
bankers sounded the alarm on inflation risks stemming from the
ongoing war in the Middle East that has sent markets into a
tailspin.
Following a hectic week of monetary policy meetings across
effectively the Group of Seven (G7) nations and others, the key
takeaway for investors has been the prospect of a more
aggressive policy path.
Traders are no longer expecting a Federal Reserve rate cut
this year, a hike from the Bank of England next
month is seen as a coin toss and sources said the
European Central Bank may need to begin discussing rate
increases in April and possibly tighten policy in June
.
"There's a lot of value in the signal," said Vishnu
Varathan, Mizuho's head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan, of
the hawkish rhetoric from central banks this week.
"It's a messaging to markets that we are on top of this, you
don't need to send yields unnecessarily higher, because... the
yields are already starting to do the work for them."
A rout in global bonds pushed yields to multi-month highs on
Thursday, though the selloff abated in Asia on Friday.
Trading of cash U.S. Treasuries was closed due to a holiday
in Japan, but futures edged marginally higher.
The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note,
which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, had jumped
as much as over 20 basis points in the previous session.
"Probably every day that goes by without an end to the war
or clear positive steps increases the chances of that more
adverse scenario for the bond market," Thomas Mathews, head of
markets for Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said of the
possibility of rate hikes from major central banks by the
year-end.
For the month thus far, Germany's two-year yield
has already risen some 56 bps, while yields on two-year British
gilts have jumped 88 bps.
ENERGY CHOKEHOLD
Brent crude futures were down 3% at $105.43 a barrel
on Friday while U.S. crude fell 2.2% to $94 per barrel,
after leading European nations and Japan offered to join efforts
to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz
and the U.S. outlined moves to boost oil supply.
Still, both remained well above levels prior to the
U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, having risen more than 40% this month.
Natural gas prices have also soared, with those in Europe
surging as much as 35% on Thursday, as Iranian and Israeli
strikes targeted some of the Middle East's most important gas
infrastructure.
That prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to tell Israel not
to repeat its attacks on Iranian natural gas infrastructure.
"Even if the U.S. leaves (the conflict), Israel might not
leave, and there may still be some strikes and Iran will
retaliate, maybe at a lower volume," said Alicia Garcia-Herrero,
chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis.
"But this means that the Gulf will still be under
pressure... so oil prices will not go back to $60, they will
maybe stay at $90, at least until the end of the year. So the
shock is already unavoidable."
SHARES STEADY, DOLLAR FALLS
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
rose 0.18% and was set for a weekly gain of
roughly 0.7%, snapping two straight weeks of losses.
The retreat in oil prices on Friday helped stabilise the
market mood, though moves remained volatile.
Nasdaq futures rose 0.3% while S&P 500 futures
advanced 0.37%, after closing lower in the overnight cash
session. EUROSTOXX 50 futures were up 0.87%, while DAX
futures jumped 0.8%.
The dollar was meanwhile set for a weekly loss of more than
1%, as investors priced in steeper rate hikes from other
central banks this year as compared to the Fed.
The euro last bought $1.1570, having jumped 1.2% on
Thursday, while sterling was steady at $1.3424 after a
1.3% rise overnight.
Even the yen, which was on the cusp of 160 per dollar
in the previous session, found some reprieve and last stood at
157.85.
The Japanese currency was also supported by some hawkish
comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday,
after the central bank held rates steady but maintained its bias
for tighter monetary policy.
Yusuke Miyairi, Nomura's JPY FX and rates strategist, said
that while Ueda may have left the door open to a rate hike in
April, it remains "premature" to conclude that such a move would
be coming.
Elsewhere, spot gold was up 0.8% to $4,686.97 an
ounce.