* Nikkei gains but Kospi slips, Wall St futures ease

* Dollar holds firm after spike in Treasury yields

* Yen hits fresh 40-year low, on watch for intervention

* Oil edges up as U.S.-Iran talks look deadlocked for now

(Adds South Korea exports, earnings forecasts, China stocks)

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, July 1 (Reuters) - Asian share markets started the

new quarter in a cautious mood on Wednesday as talks between the

United States and Iran hit new hurdles, while investors stayed

alert for possible Japanese intervention as the yen plumbed

fresh 40-year lows.

Tehran said on Tuesday it would not meet with top U.S.

envoys who had flown to the region, with the two sides still far

apart on a framework that would fully open the Strait of Hormuz.

Bond markets were also under pressure after U.S. Treasury

yields spiked overnight as futures narrowed the odds on rate

hikes from the Federal Reserve ahead of crucial jobs figures on

Thursday.

All eyes will thus be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh when he

appears at a European Central Bank conference later in the

session, for any guidance on the need for a tightening.

Unfortunately for traders, Warsh has long been against the

Fed providing forward guidance and may keep his policy cards

close to his chest.

Futures imply a 33% probability the Fed could hike

rates at its next meeting later this month, while a September

move is priced between 67% and 88%.

Equity investors are betting the coming earnings season will

be bright enough to offset the rate risk and continue to pile

into favoured tech trades.

Japan's Nikkei climbed another 0.8%, having surged 37%

last quarter. The rush for everything tech helped boost

sentiment among big manufacturers to heights not seen since

2018, while manufacturing activity boasted its best quarter

since 2014 as new orders surged.

South Korea's main index slipped 0.9%, having risen

an eye-watering 68% in the second quarter on soaring AI-related

demand for semiconductors.

The boom delivered the fastest export growth in nearly 50 years

in June as shipments of semiconductors surged almost 200%. As a

result, South Korea became the fourth country in the world to

reach a monthly export value of $100 billion, after Germany,

China and the United States.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

firmed 0.2%, while Chinese blue chips

rose 0.3%.

In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures

were flat, while FTSE futures dipped 0.3%. S&P

500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.2%,

after making solid gains overnight.

LOT RESTING ON EARNINGS

A pause was understandable given Wall Street just notched up

its biggest quarter since 2020, led by an 88% climb in the

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

"The historical record certainly favours the bulls," noted

Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. "Since

2008, Nasdaq futures have recorded only one negative July."

"The upcoming earnings season will therefore be critical in

determining whether earnings expectations continue to improve

and whether portfolio allocations continue shifting towards

technology."

The major banks kick off reporting from mid-July, and

analysts have high expectations for profits in the tech sector

and more broadly.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs note the consensus is for earnings

per share to grow 22% on a year earlier. AI infrastructure

stocks are expected to contribute nearly 60% of S&P 500 EPS

growth, with Micron and Nvidia ( NVDA ) together

accounting for more than 40%.

Strong earnings will be needed to offset the attractiveness

of higher bond yields and the risk of a rise in the cash rate.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries stood at 4.55%, having

jumped almost 9 basis points on Tuesday.

The rise helped lift the dollar to a fresh four-decade peak

on the yen at 162.84, extending a bull run that

stretches back to early May.

The climb has drawn the usual threats of intervention from

Tokyo, though the authorities seem reluctant to act, having

spent almost 12 trillion yen through April and May to little

lasting effect.

Tim Baker, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, noted the

latest move had been more about dollar strength than yen

weakness, with the yen having been broadly steady against other

major currencies for months now.

A steep slide in oil prices had also benefited Japan greatly

as a net energy importer, he added, while real yield spreads had

widened slightly in the yen's favour.

"The upshot is that our fair value model has steadily

dropped, now sitting in the low 150s," said Baker. "Japan

policymakers may be sitting back and hoping for dollar strength

to cease, so we think yen weakness will be limited from here."

The euro was flat at $1.1409, just above the

recent 13-month trough of $1.1325.

Inflation data for the European Union due later are forecast

to show a dip to 3.0% in May, from 3.2% the previous month, and

a further decline is likely as lower oil prices feed through.

Investors no longer think a July rate rise is likely from

the ECB, putting the chance at just 32%. Indeed, markets imply

that one further hike to 2.5% could mark the end of this

tightening cycle.

As for oil, Brent crude was up 0.3% at $73.19, but a

world away from its May peak of $126.41, while U.S. crude

added 0.4% to $69.74 a barrel.

Gold remained out of favour after a very tough quarter,

easing 0.7% to $3,977 an ounce.