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Europe's STOXX down, S&P futures dented by risk-off mood
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Dollar down before jobs data, steel levies deadline
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ECB seen cutting rates, BoC on hold
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Oil bounces on relief OPEC did not raise output even
further
(Updates throughout with European trading)
By Wayne Cole and Amanda Cooper
SYDNEY/LONDON, June 2 (Reuters) -
Stocks and the dollar slipped on Monday as U.S.-China trade
tensions bubbled and investors turned defensive ahead of U.S.
jobs data and a widely expected cut in European interest rates.
Shares in Asian and European steelmakers, which export metal
to the United States, dropped in reaction to President Donald
Trump's threat late on Friday to double tariffs on imported
steel and aluminium to 50%, starting June 4. The move drew
criticism from European Union negotiators.
Speaking on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said
Trump would soon speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to iron
out a dispute over critical minerals.
Beijing then forcefully rejected Trump's trade criticism,
suggesting a call might be some time coming.
With tensions rising again over tariffs and trade, sentiment
looked fragile in Europe, where the STOXX 600 fell 0.5%
on the day and euro zone government bonds sold off, while the
euro benefited from an investor push out of dollar holdings.
"The flip-flopping on trade policy looks set to continue
and it appears the uncertainty this creates does not bother
President Trump at all. That is likely to give investors the
reason to renew selling of the U.S. dollar," MUFG strategist
Derek Halpenny said.
The dollar has lost 9% in value against a basket of six
major currencies so far this year. The index was last
down 0.6% on the day at 98.77.
White House officials also continued to play down a court
ruling that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing
across-the-board duties on imports from U.S. trading partners.
Investors will be watching for signs to indicate whether
Trump will go ahead with the 50% tariff on Wednesday or back off
as he has often done before.
Safe-haven assets found plenty of demand on Monday, with the
likes of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc staging a robust
rally, as did gold.
There was some speculation about what Ukraine's astonishing
attack on Russian air bases might mean for peace talks resuming
on Monday.
In Poland, nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki
narrowly won a presidential election, delivering a major blow to
the centrist government's efforts to cement Warsaw's
pro-European orientation.
TARIFF TURBULENCE
In U.S. markets, S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, while
Nasdaq futures lost 0.7%, suggesting a retreat at the
opening bell later. The S&P had climbed 6.2% in May, while the
Nasdaq rallied 9.6% on hopes that final import levies will be
far lower than the sky-high levels initially touted by Trump.
Front-running the tariffs has already caused wild swings in
the U.S. economy, with a contraction in the first quarter likely
turning into a jump this quarter as imports fall back.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is running at an annualised
3.8% for April-June, though analysts assume this will slow
sharply in the second half of the year.
Data this week on U.S. manufacturing and jobs will offer a
timely reading on the pulse of activity, with payrolls seen
rising 130,000 in May while unemployment stays at 4.2%.
A rise in unemployment is one of the few developments that
could get the Federal Reserve to start thinking of easing again,
with investors having largely given up on a cut this month or
next.
A move in September is seen at around a 75% chance, though
Fed officials have stopped well short of endorsing such pricing.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that cuts
remain possible later this year as he saw downside risks to
economic activity and employment and upside risks to inflation
from the tariffs.
The Senate will this week start considering a
tax-and-spending bill that will add an estimated $3.8 trillion
to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is considered
almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 2.0% on
Thursday, while markets will be sensitive to guidance on the
chance of another move as early as July.
The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday and markets imply a 76%
chance it will hold rates at 2.75%, while sounding dovish on the
future given the tariff-fuelled risk of recession there.
On Monday, the dollar fell 0.8% on the yen to below 143
, and fell 0.6% to 0.8179 Swiss francs. The
euro was up 0.6% to $1.1423, the most since late
April.
In commodity markets, gold rallied nearly 2% to $3,353 an
ounce, having lost 1.9% last week.
Brent crude oil rose 2.4% to $64.25 a barrel after
OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as
in each of the prior two months, a relief to some who had feared
an even bigger increase.