(Adds Singapore policy change, China stocks)
* Nikkei, Nasdaq futures firm as Brent slides 4%
* Iran says will halt attacks as long as US does
* Yields, dollar dip as market pares chance of Fed hike
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, July 27 (Reuters) - Share markets gave a guarded
response on Monday as a pause in fighting in the Gulf dragged
oil prices lower, easing inflation risks and boosting bonds
ahead of a packed week of central bank meetings and earnings
reports.
Iran said on Sunday it would halt its own attacks as long as
the United States did the same, with the U.S. military
reportedly concerned about dwindling supplies of ammunition.
Yet, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis had still attacked Saudi oil
installations along the Red Sea coast, threatening another
waterway vital to the global oil trade.
"Net, it looks as if developments in the Middle East have
moved in a positive direction over the weekend, adding some
credibility to the notion that oil above $100 a barrel seems to
induce de-escalatory behaviour from both sides," said Sally
Auld, group chief economist at NAB.
The lull in fighting over the Strait of Hormuz saw Brent
crude slide 5.2% to $91.73 a barrel, while U.S. crude
dropped 5.4% to $84.45.
The pullback in oil provided some relief from inflation
fears and led markets to slightly pare the probability of rate
hikes from the Federal Reserve.
The central bank meets on Wednesday and markets imply around a
one-in-three chance of a rate rise, though most analysts doubt
Chair Kevin Warsh would be in favour of a move.
"Investors see the outcome of the July meeting as unusually
uncertain, likely because the Fed has been split recently,
Warsh's own position remains unclear, and some of the
re-escalation with Iran occurred during the blackout period,"
noted analysts at Goldman Sachs.
"There will likely be at least one dissent in favour of a
hike, but most voters appear unlikely to push for a move this
week after the softer June inflation data."
The Bank of England holds its meeting on Thursday and the Bank
of Japan on Friday, and both are expected to hold steady while
remaining cautious about inflation risks ahead.
TECH EARNINGS TO TEST BULLS
Equities took comfort in the drop in oil and yields, sending
S&P 500 futures up 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures
jumped 1.1%. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained
0.4%, while DAX futures rose 0.6% and FTSE futures
went flat.
Japan's Nikkei edged up 0.1%, while South Korea's chip-heavy
index eased 1.1%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan held steady.
Chinese blue chips firmed 0.4% as chipmaker CXMT Corp
surged 470% in its Shanghai trading debut after
raising $8.6 billion in Asia's biggest initial public offering
this year.
About one-third of S&P 500 companies are due to report this
week with earnings on track to boast a 26.5% increase on last
year, according to LSEG IBES data.
With expectations so high and mounting unease over the vast
cost of AI capex, even blockbuster results may not be enough to
please investors on the day.
The massive sums involved were underlined by a WSJ report that
Nvidia ( NVDA ) was in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion
backstop for OpenAI as part of a data center project.
Companies reporting include tech darlings Microsoft ( MSFT )
, Meta Platforms ( META ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Apple ( AAPL )
and Qualcomm ( QCOM ), along with a host of industrial,
defence and healthcare stocks.
Data highlights include U.S. advance Q2 GDP where growth is
seen picking up to an annualised 1.5% after a soft start to the
year. The June PCE price index, personal income and consumption,
weekly jobless claims, Q2 employment cost index and July
Michigan consumer sentiment round out the diary.
The euro zone's schedule includes flash Q2 GDP, July
economic sentiment, consumer confidence, flash inflation and
June unemployment.
The pullback in oil helped 10-year Treasury yields
fall 4 basis points to 4.63%, and nudged the dollar
broadly lower. The euro added 0.3% to $1.1408, while
the dollar dipped 0.2% on the yen to 163.54.
The Singapore dollar nudged up after the country's
central bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy by allowing
a slightly faster appreciation in the currency.
In commodity markets, the drop in yields helped
non-interest-paying gold climb 1.3% to $4,103 an ounce.