*
Europe, U.S. stocks slightly higher, world index near
record top
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Dollar, bonds await US CPI report to refine rate cut
chances
*
Oil slips ahead of Trump/Putin meeting on Ukraine
*
Gold down around 1%, traders grapple with tariff
uncertainty
(Updates after early European trading)
By Wayne Cole and Alun John
SYDNEY/LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Major share indexes
around the world crept higher on Monday continuing to grind back
towards their late July peaks, with the focus of the week on a
crucial report on U.S. inflation that will likely set the course
of the dollar and bonds.
Europe's STOXX 600 share index rose 0.3%, with
Asia-Pacific stocks up 0.2% and S&P 500 futures
also 0.2% higher.
MSCI's world share index is now just
0.2% from its all-time high hit in late July as a strong
earnings season in the United States, and a mildly positive one
in Europe, support overall sentiment, helping investors to shrug
off the impact of soft U.S. July jobs data.
Trade and geopolitics loom large this week. A U.S. tariff
deadline on China, due to expire on Tuesday, is expected to be
extended again, while U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian
leader Vladimir Putin are due to meet in Alaska on Friday to
discuss ending the Ukraine war.
The main economic release will be U.S. consumer prices
on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the impact of tariffs to
help nudge the core up 0.3% to an annual pace of 3.0% and away
from the Federal Reserve target of 2%.
An upside surprise would challenge market wagers for a
September rate cut, though analysts assume it would have to be a
very high number given that a downward turn in payrolls is now
dominating the outlook.
It also comes at a complicated time for the Fed, with Trump
having repeatedly criticised policymakers for not cutting rates
at recent meetings, and with the focus on who will succeed
current chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.
This, said Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at
HSBC ( HSBC ), means that the dollar's reaction to the CPI data will not
be straightforward.
If the figure indicates higher U.S. tariff price
pressures, "that could support the stagflation narrative, and to
the dollar's detriment", he said, adding this would also go
against the view of some policymakers that tariffs are not
causing prices to increase.
"If, however, softer U.S. CPI readings materialise,
including the core goods figures, this would likely challenge
the dollar too by supporting the case for further Fed easing,
and perhaps see greater criticism from the U.S. administration
towards Fed Chair Powell."
Markets imply around a 90% probability of a September
easing, and at least one more cut by year-end.
That has helped support Treasuries, and the U.S. benchmark
10-year yield was last 4.25%, hovering near last week's low of
4.187%.
The prospect of lower borrowing costs has supported
equities, along with a run of strong earnings, particularly from
tech names.
Analysts were unsure what to make of reports, including by
Reuters, that Nvidia ( NVDA ) and AMD have agreed to
give the U.S. government 15% of their revenues from chip sales
in China, under an arrangement to obtain export licences for the
semiconductors.
CHINA EXPORTS DEFLATION
Chinese blue chips added 0.5% after data showed
consumer price inflation ticked up in July, but producer prices
kept falling as the country's massive manufacturing sector
exported deflation to the rest of the world.
Figures on Chinese industrial output and retail sales for
July are due on Friday, and forecasts are for a slight slowdown
after a jump in the previous month.
Currencies were quiet, with early trading thinned by a
holiday in Japan. The euro was marginally higher at $1.1651
and further away from a recent trough of $1.1392,
while the dollar dipped to 147.38 yen.
The Australian dollar eased to $0.6520 ahead of a
meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is widely
expected to back a rate cut. It stunned markets in July by
skipping an easing of policy to await more inflation data.
In commodity markets, gold fell 1.1% to $3,360 an ounce
after wild swings last week on reports that the U.S.
would slap 39% tariffs on some gold bars, which are major
exports of Switzerland.
The White House said on Sunday it planned to issue an
executive order clarifying the country's stance.
Oil prices slipped on the possibility that the scheduled
talks between Trump and Putin in Alaska on Friday could make
progress towards a ceasefire in Ukraine and potentially prompt
an eventual easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Brent dropped 0.9% to $65.97 a barrel, while U.S.
crude eased 0.8% to $63.38.