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GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares end tough November on firmer ground helped by Fed cut bets
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares end tough November on firmer ground helped by Fed cut bets
Mar 10, 2026 9:01 PM

(Updates throughout with European trading)

*

CME Group outage disrupts futures trading, affecting

market

liquidity

*

Fed officials support rate cut, boosting stock recovery in

November

*

BOJ rate hike speculation grows amid yen's decline

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) -

Global stocks headed into a jittery final session of the

month on Friday, as an outage at exchange operator CME Group

halted trading in a swathe of futures on currencies,

commodities, Treasuries and stocks, further draining market

liquidity.

The outage

at CME datacentres came with U.S. investors due to return

from the Thanksgiving holiday for a shortened session on Friday.

Europe's STOXX 600 was roughly unchanged on the

day, having gained 0.5% in November, marking its weakest monthly

performance since June, despite having hit record highs a couple

of weeks ago.

The S&P 500 is set for its first monthly decline

since April, with a fall of 0.4% in November, although it has

recovered from two-month lows a week ago that implied a

month-to-date drop of 5%.

CHOPPY NOVEMBER

November this year proved to be unusually choppy for global

equities as concerns about tech stocks' sky-high valuations

shook markets while a U.S. government shutdown ended only after

a record 43 days. Bitcoin, a good reflection of investor

risk appetite, has fallen 16% in November.

The lack of economic data from the government shutdown has made

the Federal Reserve cautious about further policy easing, but

heavyweights like Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York

Fed President John Williams have voiced support for a rate cut

next month, which has been central to the recovery in stocks.

"Usually you expect volatility in September and October,

we've had it in November, but recovered most of it," Lombard

Odier economist Samy Chaar said.

"We were pricing the probability of a cut in December of

around 30% and we're now over 80%. And that, I think, is a very

strong reason for the month-end rally," he said.

Fed funds futures are implying an 85% chance of a rate cut

next month, a sea change from just 30% a week earlier, CME

FedWatch showed.

BOJ HIKE IN VIEW

In the broader currency market, the dollar edged up

against a basket of major currencies, but headed for its largest

weekly fall since July, leaving it almost unchanged on the

month.

The Japanese yen was flat at 156.37 per dollar,

having bounced off last week's 10-month low of 157.9. Investors

are watching for intervention from Japanese authorities after

weeks of verbal jawboning to stem the currency's relentless

slide.

Data showed on Friday that core consumer prices in Tokyo

rose 2.8% in November from a year earlier, above forecasts for a

2.7% gain. That added to a slew of data that have kept bets for

a rate hike from the Bank of Japan alive.

There are growing whispers that the BOJ could hike rates as soon

as next month, which is now about 30% priced in by markets. More

BOJ board members are signalling a hike as the yen tumbled and

political pressures to keep rates low faded.

"Today is also month-end and FX performance can often be

determined by those less predictable flows," MUFG strategists

said in a note.

The Aussie and the kiwi are big gainers this week,

up 1.1% and 1.8%, respectively, as markets bet that the

rate-cutting cycles in both countries are nearing an end.

Minutes from the European Central Bank's latest meeting showed

policymakers there were not in a rush to cut rates either.

The euro eased 0.2% to $1.157, for a gain of 0.3%

this month.

OIL, GOLD UP

Oil prices rose on Friday but were set for a fourth straight

month of losses as the U.S. pushed for the peace plan for the

Ukraine war. Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $63.55 a

barrel, down 2.3% in November.

Spot gold prices were up 0.2% at $4,166 an ounce,

bringing the monthly gain to 4.5%, although they are still some

distance away from the record high of $4,381.

(Additional reporting by Stella Qiu and Tom Westbrook; Editing

by Sam Holmes and Kate Mayberry)

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