(Updates throughout with European trading)
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CME Group outage disrupts futures trading, affecting
market
liquidity
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Fed officials support rate cut, boosting stock recovery in
November
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BOJ rate hike speculation grows amid yen's decline
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) -
Global stocks headed into a jittery final session of the
month on Friday, as an outage at exchange operator CME Group
halted trading in a swathe of futures on currencies,
commodities, Treasuries and stocks, further draining market
liquidity.
The outage
at CME datacentres came with U.S. investors due to return
from the Thanksgiving holiday for a shortened session on Friday.
Europe's STOXX 600 was roughly unchanged on the
day, having gained 0.5% in November, marking its weakest monthly
performance since June, despite having hit record highs a couple
of weeks ago.
The S&P 500 is set for its first monthly decline
since April, with a fall of 0.4% in November, although it has
recovered from two-month lows a week ago that implied a
month-to-date drop of 5%.
CHOPPY NOVEMBER
November this year proved to be unusually choppy for global
equities as concerns about tech stocks' sky-high valuations
shook markets while a U.S. government shutdown ended only after
a record 43 days. Bitcoin, a good reflection of investor
risk appetite, has fallen 16% in November.
The lack of economic data from the government shutdown has made
the Federal Reserve cautious about further policy easing, but
heavyweights like Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York
Fed President John Williams have voiced support for a rate cut
next month, which has been central to the recovery in stocks.
"Usually you expect volatility in September and October,
we've had it in November, but recovered most of it," Lombard
Odier economist Samy Chaar said.
"We were pricing the probability of a cut in December of
around 30% and we're now over 80%. And that, I think, is a very
strong reason for the month-end rally," he said.
Fed funds futures are implying an 85% chance of a rate cut
next month, a sea change from just 30% a week earlier, CME
FedWatch showed.
BOJ HIKE IN VIEW
In the broader currency market, the dollar edged up
against a basket of major currencies, but headed for its largest
weekly fall since July, leaving it almost unchanged on the
month.
The Japanese yen was flat at 156.37 per dollar,
having bounced off last week's 10-month low of 157.9. Investors
are watching for intervention from Japanese authorities after
weeks of verbal jawboning to stem the currency's relentless
slide.
Data showed on Friday that core consumer prices in Tokyo
rose 2.8% in November from a year earlier, above forecasts for a
2.7% gain. That added to a slew of data that have kept bets for
a rate hike from the Bank of Japan alive.
There are growing whispers that the BOJ could hike rates as soon
as next month, which is now about 30% priced in by markets. More
BOJ board members are signalling a hike as the yen tumbled and
political pressures to keep rates low faded.
"Today is also month-end and FX performance can often be
determined by those less predictable flows," MUFG strategists
said in a note.
The Aussie and the kiwi are big gainers this week,
up 1.1% and 1.8%, respectively, as markets bet that the
rate-cutting cycles in both countries are nearing an end.
Minutes from the European Central Bank's latest meeting showed
policymakers there were not in a rush to cut rates either.
The euro eased 0.2% to $1.157, for a gain of 0.3%
this month.
OIL, GOLD UP
Oil prices rose on Friday but were set for a fourth straight
month of losses as the U.S. pushed for the peace plan for the
Ukraine war. Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $63.55 a
barrel, down 2.3% in November.
Spot gold prices were up 0.2% at $4,166 an ounce,
bringing the monthly gain to 4.5%, although they are still some
distance away from the record high of $4,381.
(Additional reporting by Stella Qiu and Tom Westbrook; Editing
by Sam Holmes and Kate Mayberry)