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BOJ's Ueda says conditions for rate hikes gradually in
place
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Nvidia ( NVDA ) earnings, Fed speakers among the week's highlights
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Dollar, Treasury yields supported by revised Fed outlook
By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Global stocks began the
week on firmer footing ahead of a highly anticipated earnings
release from Nvidia ( NVDA ), while in Japan, a speech from its
central bank's head left markets none the wiser on the country's
rate outlook.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Monday the
central bank will keep raising interest rates if economic and
price developments move in line with its forecasts, but made no
mention of whether a hike could come in December.
His speech had been closely watched by investors for clues
on the BOJ's next rate hike, which could have been seen as a way
to push back against the yen's weakness.
The Japanese currency has fallen some 7% since
October against a resurgent dollar and last week weakened past
the 156 per dollar level for the first time since July, keeping
traders on alert for any intervention from Japanese authorities.
It was last 0.3% lower at 154.72 per dollar, paring some of
the losses it made as Ueda spoke.
On the chance of a BOJ hike next month, IG market analyst
Tony Sycamore said it would "depend on where dollar/yen is to a
degree".
"If dollar/yen's up at around 160, I think that would
increase the (chances) of a rate hike. But I think he's probably
not unhappy with dollar/yen sitting around 150, 152. I think
that probably keeps him on the sidelines until next year.
"It's coming, it's just a matter of when... the Japanese
economy is doing ok."
Despite a weaker yen, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.76%,
dragged by a decline in shares of healthcare companies.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside
Japan, meanwhile, advanced 0.7%.
Similarly, Nasdaq futures gained 0.6%, while S&P 500
futures edged up 0.25%.
The highlight for investors this week will be Nvidia's ( NVDA )
third-quarter results on Wednesday, where analysts expect the
artificial intelligence chip leader to record a jump in revenue.
Shares of Nvidia ( NVDA ) are up nearly 200% this year, with its
hefty weighting in the S&P 500 partially responsible for the
index's charge to record highs this year.
But its blistering multi-year run has also raised the bar
for earnings outperformance and a slip-up could fuel worries
that the market's AI hopes have outstripped reality.
Elsewhere, Chinese stocks opened higher on Monday. The
CSI300 blue-chip index last gained 1.22%, while the
Shanghai Composite Index jumped 1.34%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.5%.
TRUMP AND RATES
U.S. Treasury yields held near multi-month highs on Monday,
bolstered by bets of less aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts
down the line.
The benchmark 10-year yield steadied at 4.4315%,
while the two-year yield last stood at 4.2990%.
Futures imply a 60% chance of the Fed easing by a
quarter-point in December and have only 77 basis points of cuts
priced in by late 2025, compared with more than 100 a few weeks
ago.
That has come on the back of Chair Jerome Powell's comments
last week signalling that borrowing costs could remain higher
for longer, and on the view that U.S. President-elect Donald
Trump's touted policies of tariffs, reduced immigration and
debt-funded tax cuts will stoke inflation, limiting the scope
for further policy easing.
"With changes afoot in immigration policy, tariff policy,
and fiscal policy, Fed officials would tread more lightly anyway
in view of the inflationary impact that these policies pose, and
the need to keep real policy interest rates higher than
otherwise, as a result," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and
rates strategist at Macquarie.
At least seven Fed officials are due to speak this week and
traders assume they will sound cautious about aggressive cuts.
The shift in outlook for U.S. rates and inflation has in
turn lifted the dollar, which has scaled fresh peaks alongside
U.S. Treasury yields.
Against a basket of currencies, the greenback hovered near a
one-year high at 106.66.
Sterling last bought $1.2640, languishing near last
week's six-month low, while the euro ticked up 0.03%
to $1.0543.
A horde of European Central Bankers are also speaking this
week and could sound more dovish given recent soft economic data
and the risk of Trump's proposed tariffs hitting EU trade.
In commodities, oil prices firmed on Monday. Brent crude
futures rose 0.18% to $71.17 a barrel, while U.S. crude
futures were little changed at $67.05 per barrel.
Spot gold jumped 1.24% to $2,593.02 an ounce,
recovering from its sharp fall last week.