* South Korea stocks skid, Wall St futures steady
* Brent tops $90 as US launches new strikes, Iran retaliates
* Alphabet, Intel ( INTC ) and Tesla among earnings this week
* Yields rise, markets narrow odds on Fed September hike
(Updates prices to Asian afternoon)
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, July 20 (Reuters) - Shares slipped with bonds on
Monday as the escalating conflict in the Gulf lifted oil prices
and fanned fears of inflation, while a packed week of major tech
earnings will further test investor faith in the artificial
intelligence trade.
Brent crude climbed above $90 a barrel for the first time in
more than a month as the U.S. military started a ninth straight
day of attacks against Iran, which in turn struck targets across
the region. Just a handful of ships transited the Strait of
Hormuz on Sunday and Tehran claimed to have hit two.
"The longer the strait remains closed and the war escalates,
the greater the risk that oil prices will have to rise to
around $150/barrel to bring demand down to match the hit to
supply," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at fund
manager AMP. "This is not our base case but it's a high risk
again."
Brent added 2.4% to $90.18 a barrel, while U.S.
crude rose 2.1% to $84.18.
The jump in fuel costs has revived worries about inflation
even as U.S. consumer price data surprised on the downside last
week, leading futures markets to price in 29 basis points of
Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end.
"Our forecast is for a more gradual turn toward a Fed hike
in 2027, but the balance of risks is shifting in the direction
of an earlier hike than expected," said Bruce Kasman, chief
economist at JPMorgan, noting a recent hawkish tilt in Fed
policy rhetoric.
Futures imply a 60% chance of a rate rise as early as
September, pushing yields on 30-year Treasuries back
above the psychological 5.0% barrier. This is a level that tends
to attract funds away from equities and toward fixed income,
while lifting the valuation bar for future corporate earnings.
The shift has come just as investors question sky-high
valuations for chip and AI stocks, which have seen the
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index shed 10% last week to leave it
20% down from June's record high.
SKY HIGH EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS
Markets took an added blow on Friday when Chinese AI firm
Moonshot said it had a new open-weight model, Kimi K3, that it
says delivers performance approaching U.S. giant Anthropic's
frontier Fable model.
All of which raises the stakes for this week's rush of
profit results, which include Alphabet, Intel ( INTC )
and Tesla.
BofA analyst Savita Subramanian remains upbeat on the
earnings outlook, tipping a 5% beat versus consensus, or 28%
growth. Tech is expected to drive over half of growth, with
semiconductors expected to rise around 130% year-on-year.
Such forecasts helped S&P 500 futures hold steady,
while Nasdaq futures edged up 0.2. In Europe, EUROSTOXX
50 futures were little changed, while DAX futures
and FTSE futures eased 0.1%.
Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday, having shed
6.4% last week in a tech-led rout. MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.3%,
while Chinese blue chips rose 1.4%.
South Korea's chip-heavy market lost a further 4.1%,
after diving almost 9% last week in wild trade as retail
investors were squeezed out of leveraged positions.
The latest spike in oil will be a headache for the European
Central Bank which meets on Thursday and is considered likely to
hold rates at 2.25% following June's hike.
Attention will be on policy makers' guidance with markets
almost fully priced for a rise at its September meeting and
rates of 2.75% early next year.
The euro was flat at $1.1442, having spent more
than a week trading between $1.1377 and $1.1482. The dollar was
steady at 162.36 yen, just below the recent 40-year
peak of 162.84 as Japanese authorities flag the threat of
intervention should the yen weaken quickly.
Sterling held firm at $1.3462 as bond markets waited
for Britain's incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham to name a new
treasurer.
In commodity markets, the rise in yields pressured
non-interest-paying gold which fell 0.1% to $4,013 an ounce
.