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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stock markets wary, oil steady on Hormuz tensions; traders eye central banks
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stock markets wary, oil steady on Hormuz tensions; traders eye central banks
Mar 16, 2026 6:21 AM

* Oil volatile as Hormuz shipping plans lack detail

* Host of central banks seen warning on inflation, growth

* US stock futures, Asia shares slightly higher, Europe

flat

* Dollar off highs, still near major chart levels

(Updates pricing after morning European trading)

By Alun John and Wayne Cole

LONDON/SYDNEY, March 16 (Reuters) - Investors were in a

cautious mood on Monday as hostilities in the Gulf kept oil

prices elevated, clouding an inflation outlook that should keep

most central banks on pause at policy meetings this week.

Israel said on Monday it has detailed plans for at least

three more weeks of war as its military pounded sites across

Iran overnight, while Iranian drone attacks temporarily shut

Dubai airport and hit a key oil facility in the United Arab

Emirates.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday called for a coalition

of nations to help reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, warning

that the NATO alliance faces a "very bad" future if its members

fail to come to Washington's aid.

Benchmark Brent crude was last at $103.3 a barrel,

flat on the day and retreating from earlier highs after Reuters

reported oil-loading operations had resumed at the UAE port of

Fujairah.

But still, it is up from below $70 a barrel in late February

before the war started, and had dipped under $60 a barrel in

early January.

This sharp rise and its potential inflationary effect has

caused markets to dramatically reassess the amount of central

bank easing they expect this year.

Traders now are not quite fully pricing in one U.S. Federal

Reserve rate cut this year and expect at least one hike by the

European Central Bank by the end of 2026.

Interest-rate setters in the U.S., Britain, euro zone,

Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden will this week

all hold their first meetings since the start of the war, and

investors hope they will get some more colour on policymakers'

thinking.

The big question for officials is, "How long does the

conflict last (and) does the shock in energy prices - offset by

fiscal support - cause second-round inflation effects and

therefore require restrictive monetary policy," said Kenneth

Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe

Generale.

"Or are economies heading down a recessionary path, and does

oil trigger a bear market in risk assets?"

Risk assets like stocks have fallen sharply since the

conflict began, but were somewhat steadier on Monday as

investors tried to process what might happen next.

Europe's broad STOXX 600 rose 0.3% on Monday, though it is

down nearly 6% since the war began. U.S. shares have fallen

less, the S&P 500 is down 3.5%, and futures were up 0.95%

in early European trading.

Earlier in the day, Asia-Pacific stocks

nudged up 0.7%, helped by a rebound in South Korea. The

once-loved, tech-heavy KOSPI benchmark has been an epicentre of

selling globally since the war began, but even with Monday's 1%

gain, it is down 11% in March.

Chinese blue chips were flat after data showed

retail sales and industrial output for January and February

topped forecasts, while house prices continued to slip.

Top U.S. and Chinese officials are also meeting in Paris to

discuss potential deals in agriculture, critical minerals and

managed trade for Trump and Xi to consider when the U.S.

president visits Beijing.

ALL THE CENTRAL BANKS

The dramatic move in central bank pricing has caused major

shifts in government bonds.

Ten-year Treasury yields were at 4.23%, down

around 5 basis points on the day though still up 27 bps so far

this month, as futures have sharply scaled back the scope for

future rate cuts.

The Fed is considered certain to hold on Wednesday and the

chance of an easing by June has fallen to just 26% from 69% a

month ago.

Rate-sensitive, shorter-dated yields have moved even more

dramatically, and two-year German yields have risen 37 basis

points, while the equivalent British gilt yield has increased 55

bps.

A cautiously steady outcome is expected from the other

central bank meetings, excluding the Reserve Bank of Australia,

which is seen likely to raise its cash rate a quarter point to

4.1% as it battles resurgent inflation at home.

The heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit

the U.S. dollar as a store of liquidity. The United States is

also a net energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over

Europe and much of Asia, which are net importers.

But the dollar was trading lower on Monday, losses which

accelerated as the oil price dropped back.

The dollar eased 0.4% to 159.0 yen, moving further

from its 20-month top of 159.75 hit on Friday, with investors

wary in case a break of 160.00 triggers further warnings of

intervention from Japan.

The euro gained 0.6% from near a seven-month low to $1.1482

Gold was down 0.2% at $5,009 an ounce, having so far

seen scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against

inflation risks.

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