* Oil volatile as Hormuz shipping plans lack detail
* Host of central banks seen warning on inflation, growth
* US stock futures, Asia shares slightly higher, Europe
flat
* Dollar off highs, still near major chart levels
(Updates pricing after morning European trading)
By Alun John and Wayne Cole
LONDON/SYDNEY, March 16 (Reuters) - Investors were in a
cautious mood on Monday as hostilities in the Gulf kept oil
prices elevated, clouding an inflation outlook that should keep
most central banks on pause at policy meetings this week.
Israel said on Monday it has detailed plans for at least
three more weeks of war as its military pounded sites across
Iran overnight, while Iranian drone attacks temporarily shut
Dubai airport and hit a key oil facility in the United Arab
Emirates.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday called for a coalition
of nations to help reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, warning
that the NATO alliance faces a "very bad" future if its members
fail to come to Washington's aid.
Benchmark Brent crude was last at $103.3 a barrel,
flat on the day and retreating from earlier highs after Reuters
reported oil-loading operations had resumed at the UAE port of
Fujairah.
But still, it is up from below $70 a barrel in late February
before the war started, and had dipped under $60 a barrel in
early January.
This sharp rise and its potential inflationary effect has
caused markets to dramatically reassess the amount of central
bank easing they expect this year.
Traders now are not quite fully pricing in one U.S. Federal
Reserve rate cut this year and expect at least one hike by the
European Central Bank by the end of 2026.
Interest-rate setters in the U.S., Britain, euro zone,
Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden will this week
all hold their first meetings since the start of the war, and
investors hope they will get some more colour on policymakers'
thinking.
The big question for officials is, "How long does the
conflict last (and) does the shock in energy prices - offset by
fiscal support - cause second-round inflation effects and
therefore require restrictive monetary policy," said Kenneth
Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe
Generale.
"Or are economies heading down a recessionary path, and does
oil trigger a bear market in risk assets?"
Risk assets like stocks have fallen sharply since the
conflict began, but were somewhat steadier on Monday as
investors tried to process what might happen next.
Europe's broad STOXX 600 rose 0.3% on Monday, though it is
down nearly 6% since the war began. U.S. shares have fallen
less, the S&P 500 is down 3.5%, and futures were up 0.95%
in early European trading.
Earlier in the day, Asia-Pacific stocks
nudged up 0.7%, helped by a rebound in South Korea. The
once-loved, tech-heavy KOSPI benchmark has been an epicentre of
selling globally since the war began, but even with Monday's 1%
gain, it is down 11% in March.
Chinese blue chips were flat after data showed
retail sales and industrial output for January and February
topped forecasts, while house prices continued to slip.
Top U.S. and Chinese officials are also meeting in Paris to
discuss potential deals in agriculture, critical minerals and
managed trade for Trump and Xi to consider when the U.S.
president visits Beijing.
ALL THE CENTRAL BANKS
The dramatic move in central bank pricing has caused major
shifts in government bonds.
Ten-year Treasury yields were at 4.23%, down
around 5 basis points on the day though still up 27 bps so far
this month, as futures have sharply scaled back the scope for
future rate cuts.
The Fed is considered certain to hold on Wednesday and the
chance of an easing by June has fallen to just 26% from 69% a
month ago.
Rate-sensitive, shorter-dated yields have moved even more
dramatically, and two-year German yields have risen 37 basis
points, while the equivalent British gilt yield has increased 55
bps.
A cautiously steady outcome is expected from the other
central bank meetings, excluding the Reserve Bank of Australia,
which is seen likely to raise its cash rate a quarter point to
4.1% as it battles resurgent inflation at home.
The heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit
the U.S. dollar as a store of liquidity. The United States is
also a net energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over
Europe and much of Asia, which are net importers.
But the dollar was trading lower on Monday, losses which
accelerated as the oil price dropped back.
The dollar eased 0.4% to 159.0 yen, moving further
from its 20-month top of 159.75 hit on Friday, with investors
wary in case a break of 160.00 triggers further warnings of
intervention from Japan.
The euro gained 0.6% from near a seven-month low to $1.1482
Gold was down 0.2% at $5,009 an ounce, having so far
seen scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against
inflation risks.