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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks and dollar idle ahead of Fed's favourite inflation figure
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks and dollar idle ahead of Fed's favourite inflation figure
May 31, 2024 1:54 AM

(Updated at 0810 GMT)

By Huw Jones

LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - Global shares were little

changed on Friday in subdued trading as investors hunkered down

for key U.S inflation figures that will shape the Federal

Reserve's thinking on interest rates when it meets mid-June.

The dollar was steady against peer currencies ahead

of the U.S. inflation data.

Oil was slightly weaker after Fed officials said it

was too soon to start considering rate cuts, and following a

surprise build in U.S. gasoline stocks.

The MSCI All Country Stock index was flat at

780.9 points, down nearly 2% on the week, though still up more

than 7% for the year.

In Europe, the STOXX index of 600 companies was

lower and headed for a second week of declines, thought still

likely to show gains for May.

"The big driver in the market at the moment is the same old

story of when is the Fed going to pivot and start cutting

rates," said Mark Ellis, CEO of Nutshell Asset Management.

The VIX index, dubbed Wall Street's 'fear gauge', has

begun rising again, he noted.

"Although stock markets have performed strongly in May, just

in the last week it seems very stressed. I'm expecting that to

subside today, and seasonally the first week of June is pretty

good for markets," Ellis added.

Policymakers at the Fed who next meet on June 11-12, said on

Thursday that they continue to expect inflation to fall this

year even as the labor market stays strong, leaving them in no

hurry to cut borrowing costs.

There will get a fresh read on inflation's progress at 1230

GMT with the Commerce Department's publication of the monthly

U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, widely

viewed as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Economists estimate it rose 2.7% in April from a year ago;

the Fed targets a 2% pace.

Euro zone inflation figures are due at 0900 GMT, though

analysts say the data is unlikely to alter the European Central

Bank's widely flagged intention to cut interest rates by 25

basis points when it meets next Thursday, though the path of

further cuts remains unclear.

Ellis said expectation that the ECB will move before the Fed

in cutting rates, the opposite to what has historically

happened, is largely priced into markets.

U.S. stock index futures were flat

to weaker ahead of Wall Street's open, where the opening tone

will be determined by the inflation data.

Analysts said they expect little impact on Wall Street from

news that Donald Trump has become the first U.S. president to be

convicted of a crime ahead of a November vote when he will try

to win back the White House from Democratic President Joe Biden.

ASIA WEAKER

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

was down 0.5%. The index was set for a gain of

about 2.7% in May, rising for the fourth straight month.

China stocks were down 0.4%, while Hong Kong's

Hang Seng index was off 0.6%.

China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell in May, an

official factory survey showed on Friday. The soft outcome kept

alive calls for fresh stimulus as a protracted property crisis

continues to weigh on businesses, consumers and investors.

Traders are also looking over their shoulders for any hints

of intervention from the Tokyo authorities as the Japanese yen

flirts with levels that led to suspected bouts of

intervention late in April and early this month.

The yen was last at 157.165 per dollar, having touched

four-week lows of 157.715 on Wednesday. The currency weakened to

its lowest in 34 years at 160.245 on April 29, sparking at least

two suspected rounds of interventions.

Data on Friday showed core consumer prices in Japan's

capital rose 1.9% in May on rising electricity bills but price

growth excluding the effect of fuel eased, heightening

uncertainty on the timing of the central bank's next interest

rate hike.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency

against six rivals, was trading at 104.84, on course for 1.4%

decline in May, snapping a four-month winning streak.

The euro was slightly down at $1.0823 ahead of

euro zone inflation data for May.

In commodities, oil prices eased after a surprise build in

U.S. gasoline stocks weighed on the market. Brent

futures was down 0.2% at $81.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas

Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 0.2% at $77.69.

Gold, set for a fourth straight monthly gains, was

trading at $2,339 per ounce.

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Stephen Coates and Giles Elgood)

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