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China stocks record best week since 2008
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Yen jumps as Ishiba set to become Japan's next PM
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Traders ramp up bets of ECB rate cut in October
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US PCE data due later in the day
(Updates prices as of 0850 GMT)
By Stella Qiu and Sruthi Shankar
SYDNEY/LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - China's big stimulus
steps helped keep global stocks near record highs on Friday,
while the yen firmed sharply against the dollar after Japan's
former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba looked set to become the
next prime minister.
Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index edged up 0.2% to
touch an all-time high, with the German DAX, France's
CAC 40 and Britain's FTSE 100 rising in the
range of 0.1% and 0.4%.
The dollar weakened by as much as 1.4% to 142.78
yen, reversing earlier gains of about 1% when traders were
bracing for the victory of hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi,
a vocal opponent of rising borrowing costs.
Ishiba, who won a closely fought contest in his fifth, and
what he called final, attempt to lead the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party, has said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was on the
"right policy track" by ending negative rates.
"Ishiba's victory is a relief for the BoJ as he generally
supports the BoJ's policy normalisation," said Min Joo Kang,
senior economist for South Korea And Japan at ING.
"Moreover, his fiscal policy should focus on reviving the
regional economy, which should also support sustainable
inflation and growth. We believe that the upcoming inflation
results and the Fed's interest rate actions will be the key to
gauge the BOJ's next move."
The dollar was last down 1.2% against the yen at 143.03 yen,
while futures tracking the Nikkei stock index dropped
about 5%.
MSCI's world stocks index rose 0.2%, also
touching a new peak, thanks to a big turnaround in Chinese
shares as Beijing ramped up pledges to revive sputtering
economic growth.
China's blue chips jumped 4.5%, bringing their
weekly rise to 15.7%, the most since November 2008. Hong Kong's
Hang Seng index also gained 3.6% and was up 13% for the
week, its best performance since 1998.
"We think there is further upside but a lot will depend on
the specific details in the coming days around the fiscal
stimulus," said Kiran Ganesh, multi-asset strategist at UBS
Global Wealth Management.
"If this is something more about stabilisation, then maybe
it doesn't have as big a global economic impact. But if this is
a long-term measure to increase the amount of fiscal spending
the government is doing, then that could be positive for global
growth."
They see a further upside of close to 10% in Chinese stocks.
As flagged earlier this week, the People's Bank of China on
Friday lowered banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis
points and cut the 7-day reverse repo rate by 20 bps. It also
cut the 14-day reverse repo rate by 20 bps, the second reduction
this week.
Commodities have had a good week on the back of Chinese
stimulus. Iron ore prices clambered back above $100 a
metric tonne, copper broke above the key $10,000-a-tonne mark,
gold hit another record and silver scaled a
12-year top.
But oil was set for heavy weekly losses on a report that
Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial price
target of $100 a barrel for crude as it gets ready to increase
output.
Brent futures edged up 0.1% to $71.69 a barrel, but
are down 3.9% for the week. That should be good for global
disinflation as central banks ramp up rate cuts, and bullish for
consumer spending.
MORE ECB CUTS TO COME
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1141 per dollar after
data showed French consumer prices rose less than anticipated in
September and Spain's European Union-harmonised 12-month
inflation fell to 1.7% - the lowest reading since June 2023.
Money markets priced in an 80% chance of an ECB rate cut in
October from around 20% early this week and 60% before the data.
"The trend of more rate cuts than investors may have
expected is something to position for," said UBS' Ganesh. "We've
been encouraging clients to move out of cash where rates are
going to be falling and towards medium-duration investment grade
bonds to lock in yields while they have them."
U.S. Treasury yields were steady, having risen overnight on
low U.S. weekly jobless claims that led markets to lower the
odds of another outsized half-point rate cut from the Fed in
November to 47%, from 57% a day earlier.
Investors are waiting for the core personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of
inflation - later in the day. Forecasts are centred around a
small monthly rise of 0.2%, as markets are split on the size of
an expected Federal Reserve rate cut in November.
Two-year Treasury yields were up 4.9 basis points
(bps) this week to 3.623%, while 10-year yields rose
5 bps in the week to 3.779%.