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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks climb as oil prices ease; flurry of central bank meetings on tap
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks climb as oil prices ease; flurry of central bank meetings on tap
Mar 16, 2026 8:41 AM

* Oil prices ease further after Bessent comments

* Central bank meetings eyed for inflation views

* US stocks higher, led by AI companies

(Updates with open of US markets)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - Global stocks rallied on

Monday after three straight sessions of declines as oil prices

retreated, though the recent surge in crude prices is likely to

alter the inflation outlook and cause most central banks to hold

at their policy meetings this week.

Israel said it has detailed plans for at least three more

weeks of war as its military pounded sites across Iran

overnight, while Iranian drone attacks temporarily shut Dubai

airport and hit a key oil facility in the United Arab Emirates.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday called for a coalition

of nations to help reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, warning

that the NATO alliance faces a "very bad" future if its members

fail to come to Washington's aid.

Crude extended declines after Treasury Secretary Scott

Bessent said that the U.S. was "fine" with some Iranian, Indian

and Chinese ships going through the strait for now, adding that

any action to alleviate higher prices would depend on how long

the war on Iran lasts.

U.S. crude fell 5.19% to $93.60 a barrel and Brent

fell to $100.56 per barrel, down 2.5% on the day. Both

Brent and U.S. crude have surged nearly 40% in March.

This jump in oil prices and its potential to boost inflation

has led markets to recalibrate expectations for easing policies

from global central banks this year. Markets are currently

pricing in about 25 basis points of cuts from the U.S. Federal

Reserve by the end of the year, and nearly 40 basis points of

hikes from the European Central Bank, according to LSEG data.

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks were higher in the early stages

of trading, led by AI-linked names such as Nvidia ( NVDA ) and

Meta Platforms ( META ).

"If we had a very extended conflict (in the Middle East),

there are certain aspects to the AI capex story that could be

impeded if there wasn't enough energy, and if there wasn't

enough delivery of the chips and everything that was needed,"

said Steve Edwards, senior investment strategist at Morgan

Stanley Wealth Management.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 534.46 points,

or 1.15%, to 47,092.93, the S&P 500 was up 85.07 points,

or 1.28%, to 6,717.14, and the Nasdaq Composite gained

330.43 points, or 1.49%, to 22,435.60.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose

11.81 points, or 1.18%, to 1,011.02, and was on pace for its

biggest daily percentage gain since February 6. The pan-European

STOXX 600 index rose 0.79% and was on track to snap a

three-session streak of declines.

Commerzbank's shares shot up about 9% after

Italy's UniCredit launched a bid for an additional

stake in the German lender.

ALL THE CENTRAL BANKS

Central banks in the U.S., Britain, euro zone, Japan,

Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden will this week all

hold their first meetings since the start of the war, and

investors will look for clues on how rising crude prices could

impact the interest-rate path.

The sharp shifts in central bank expectations have led to

large moves in government bonds.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year notes

fell 5.9 basis points to 4.226%, though is still up about 27 bps

for March, as market participants dialed back the timing and

magnitude for expected rate cuts.

The U.S. Fed is largely expected to hold rates steady at its

policy announcement on Wednesday, and policymakers are more

likely to strike a cautious if not outright hawkish tone this

week due to the current oil shock.

Rate-sensitive, shorter-dated yields have seen sharper

moves, and two-year German yields have risen 38 basis

points, while the equivalent British gilt yield has

surged 55 bps.

A cautiously steady outcome is expected from the other

central bank meetings, excluding the Reserve Bank of Australia,

which is seen as likely to raise its cash rate a quarter point

to 4.1%, as it battles resurgent inflation at home.

The heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit

the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. The United States is also a net

energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over Europe and

much of Asia, which are net importers.

But the dollar index, which measures the greenback

against a basket of currencies, fell 0.48% to 99.86, after

touching a 10-month high on Friday, with the euro up

0.68% at $1.1494.

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