(Recasts lede, adds comments, background)
* European stocks on track for biggest weekly rise since
early April
* Wall Street futures up; S&P set for eighth straight
weekly gain
* Markets price in over 50% chance of Fed rate hike this
year
By Stefano Rebaudo
May 22 (Reuters) - European stocks were set for their
biggest weekly gain since early April, while U.S. equities were
poised to record an eighth straight weekly advance on Friday,
although a great deal of uncertainty continued to surround
U.S.-Iran peace talks.
Iran's foreign minister met Pakistan's interior minister on
Friday to discuss proposals to end the U.S.-Israeli war, Iranian
media reported, with Tehran and Washington still at odds over
Tehran's uranium stockpile and controls on the Strait of
Hormuz.
The S&P 500 was on track for its eighth straight weekly
gain, driven by booming demand for AI-related stocks as
investors largely downplayed the potential economic fallout from
the Middle East conflict and the energy shock.
That strength was only partly mirrored in major European and
Asian stock indexes, which made some ground this week but lagged
behind the U.S. rally.
"Our view is that equities will likely move higher over the
medium term, based on a combination of strong earnings, oil
prices that stay contained enough to avoid a broader growth
shock, and a Federal Reserve that remains supportive," Mark
Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth
Management, said.
UBS forecasts Brent crude at $105 at the end of September
and $95 at year-end and believes "that the bar for a Federal
Reserve hike remains high."
MSCI's main world stocks index rose 0.21%.
Europe's STOXX 600 was up 0.43% and on track for a
weekly gain of 2.8%.
Nasdaq futures climbed 0.11% and S&P 500 futures increased
0.13%. The S&P 500 index edged 0.17% higher on Thursday
at 7,445.72, after hitting 7,517.12 last week, a fresh record
high.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
rose 0.74%. Japan's Nikkei gained 2.8%,
led by artificial intelligence-related shares.
"Oil prices have also moved higher again as investors weigh
the risk that talks drag on or fall apart," said Matt Britzman,
senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
"The honest answer is that nobody really knows where these
negotiations are heading, but for now, markets are doing what
they often do when a potential geopolitical off-ramp appears -
tentatively moving as if the good news could be around the
corner."
OIL PRICES UP BUT WELL BELOW RECENT HIGHS
Brent crude futures rose 2.5% to $105.28 a barrel
but were set for a 3.8% drop for the week. They hit $126.41 in
late April.
Prolonged energy disruptions threaten to feed through to
prices across the globe, spurring traders to price in rate
hikes.
Markets are now pricing in a more than 50% chance of a rate
hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve by the end of the year,
according to the CME FedWatch tool, versus expectations of two
rate cuts before the war started.
That has lifted Treasury yields and boosted the dollar,
which has also benefited from safe-haven demand. The euro
was at $1.1614, close to the six-week low it hit on Thursday,
and is set for a 1% drop this month.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was up
0.18% at 99.37. The Japanese yen last fetched 159.11 per
dollar, perilously close to the crucial 160 level that traders
fear could bring Japanese authorities into the market again.
"Energy prices need to rapidly and quickly reverse, otherwise
the combination of fiscal spending and a capex boom is a recipe
for a lot of inflation, especially in the U.S.," said
George Saravelos, global head of forex research at Deutsche
Bank, after mentioning a global increase in fiscal spending and
AI investment.
Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh "will have to
pick between adding volatility to front-end rates, and help the
dollar, or the back-end, and hurt the dollar, but he can't avoid
both," Saravelos said.
Fed rate hikes push up short-dated yields, while no action
by the central bank could boost long-dated borrowing costs as
markets price in more inflation over the long term.
The European Central Bank has been pricing three rate hikes
by year-end since March.
The dollar remained firm against the yen following an
intervention worth an estimated $65 billion from Tokyo just
weeks ago to shore up the currency. It was last up 0.1% at
159.125 yen.