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50-bp Fed cut back on table after FT, WSJ reports
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Chances of supersized cut rise to 45% from 14%
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Dollar hits lowest vs yen since Dec. 28
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Gold at record, Treasuries bounce
By Amanda Cooper and Pete Schroeder
LONDON/WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks
opened higher on Friday and gold hit a record high after an
overnight upheaval in investor expectations for a supersized
Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.
Stocks, Treasury prices and commodities all rallied after
traders raised the chances of a half-point cut from the Fed next
week to 41%, from closer to 14% a day ago, before articles in
the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal each called the
decision "a close call".
In early trading, all three major U.S. indexes were higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.36%, the S&P 500
gained 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed
0.16%.
Hopes for a bigger cut were further boosted when influential
former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said at a forum in
Singapore "there's a strong case for 50."
Beyond the scale of Wednesday's anticipated rate cut, the
language coming out of the Fed's policy statement and future
projections will provide even more fodder for market
expectations.
"The decision to cut between 25bp vs 50bp could be closer
than most people anticipate. In our view, the dot plot will be
the most prominent part of the Fed's guidance next week, along
with Chair Powell's post-meeting press conference. Our
expectation for the Fed's forward guidance is for it to lean
broadly dovish," analysts for TD Securities wrote in a note.
The dollar dropped as much as 1.0% to 140.36 yen,
its weakest since Dec. 28. It was last down 0.83% at 140.61.
The yen has also been supported this week by hawkish
comments from Bank of Japan officials, with policy board member
Naoki Tamura saying on Thursday he was "worried that upside
inflation risk was heightening."
The dollar index, which measures the currency against
the yen and five other major rivals, dropped to a one-week
trough at 101.00.
Benchmark 10-year Treasuries rallied, pushing
yields down 2.1 basis points to 3.659%, while rate-sensitive
two-year yields dropped 6.8 bps to 3.5803%.
GOLD AND OIL CONTINUE CLIMB
Global shares rose for a fifth day, up
0.45%.
Gold headed for its strongest weekly gain since
mid-August, up 0.82% to a record high of $2,579.61 an ounce,
driven by dollar weakness and looming rate cuts.
Crude oil continued to climb after surging and was up 0.78%
to $69.51 a barrel early Friday, as producers assessed the
impact on output after Hurricane Francine tore through the Gulf
of Mexico.
(Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by
Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Timothy Heritage, Alex Richardson
and Jonathan Oatis)