(Updates pricing after European morning)
* Traders move to price in hikes for BoE and ECB this
year
* Fed seen leaving rates on hold
* Oil prices, shares remain choppy
By Sophie Kiderlin and Rae Wee
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 20 (Reuters) - Global shares and
the dollar nudged higher on Friday but were set for weekly
losses while bonds remained under pressure as central banks
warned that the Iran war could reignite inflation.
Trading stayed choppy and nerves frayed, highlighting how
brittle investor confidence remains and how sensitive markets
are to news on conflict in the Middle East.
An Axios report on Friday said that the Trump administration
is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island
to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In a choppy session Europe's cross-regional STOXX 600
was last 0.34% higher on the day, but on track for a
roughly 1.7% weekly decline, while the MSCI All-World index
was set to fall for the third consecutive week.
Nasdaq futures fell 0.56% and S&P 500 futures
dipped 0.39%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan fell 0.5% on Friday but still rose
a touch across the week.
Following a busy week of monetary policy meetings, the key
takeaway for investors has been the prospect of a more
aggressive policy tightening path.
"Clearly central banks have learned that it's very dangerous
to say that an energy shock is purely transitory," said Sandra
Horsfield, economist at Investec, while also noting the risk of
both direct and indirect effects.
"So hence we have a more hawkish-sounding reaction."
Traders are no longer expecting a Federal Reserve rate cut this
year, while chances for a rate hike from the Bank of
England and European Central Bank at their
respective next meetings rose. Sources said the ECB may need to
begin discussing rate increases in April and possibly tighten
policy in June.
"For the time being, though, sending a more hawkish message
seems a very sensible thing. But again, it's hawkish, but it's
not immediate action," Horsfield said.
Euro zone government bond yields rose for a third day in a
row on Friday, after a rout the day before, while the British
10-year gilt yield soared to its highest since
2008. It was last up 7.6 basis points to 4.93%.
Germany's two-year yield, which is up around 59 basis
points for the month, was last up 3.2 bps at 2.61%.
ENERGY CHOKEHOLD
Oil prices were also choppy on Friday, with Brent crude futures
last down 1.32% at $107.22 a barrel. Leading European
nations and Japan offered to join efforts to secure safe passage
for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. outlined
moves to boost oil supply.
Natural gas prices have also soared, with those in Europe
skyrocketing as much as 35% on Thursday, as Iranian and Israeli
strikes hit some of the Middle East's most important gas
infrastructure.
That prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to tell Israel not to
repeat its attacks on Iranian natural gas infrastructure.
"Even if the U.S. leaves (the conflict), Israel might not
leave, and there may still be some strikes and Iran will
retaliate, maybe at a lower volume," said Alicia Garcia-Herrero,
chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis.
"But this means that the Gulf will still be under
pressure... so oil prices will not go back to $60, they will
maybe stay at $90, at least until the end of the year. So the
shock is already unavoidable."
DOLLAR FALLS FROM PEAK
The dollar was set for a weekly loss of 1.15% and was
last a touch higher as the Fed is now seen as the only major
central bank that is not expected to raise rates this year.
That kept the euro holding onto most of Thursday's 1.2%
gains to fetch $1.1575, while sterling dipped 0.22% to
$1.34, after a 1.3% rise the previous day.
The yen, which was on the cusp of 160 per dollar in the
previous session, last stood at 158.57.
The Japanese currency was also helped by some hawkish comments
from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday, after the
central bank held rates steady but maintained its bias for
tighter monetary policy.
In precious metals, spot gold was up close to 0.8% at
around $4,684 an ounce.