(Adds analyst comments, market details, updates prices, adds NEW
YORK to dateline )
* Rate futures imply no Fed move this month, while a
September hike is priced in
* US crude falls 1.74% to $68.29 a barrel
* Fed's Warsh says inflation expectations and risks have
eased in recent weeks
By Rodrigo Campos and Danilo Masoni
NEW YORK/MILAN, July 1 (Reuters) - A gauge of stock markets
around the world edged up on Wednesday as the U.S. central bank
head said inflation expectations have fallen, while crude oil
prices were down as optimism over U.S.-Iran talks eased supply
concerns.
Traders also watched for possible Japanese intervention in the
currency market after the yen touched fresh 40-year lows against
the dollar.
Speaking on a panel of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal,
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations
and inflation risks have come down in recent weeks. He said his
fellow U.S. policymakers will decide whether to raise interest
rates when they begin their next meeting, keeping to his word on
not giving forward guidance.
His comments weighed on the dollar, which has been
underpinned by rising expectations of Fed rate hikes this year,
as inflation runs well above the central bank's 2% annual
target. Still, many analysts believe the inflation picture will
improve in the months ahead.
"Nothing that we see suggests that any imbalance either on
the activity side or the inflation side is growing rapidly,"
said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North
America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank's New York
branch.
"You can afford to wait and see how these longer-term
technological trends play out," Englander added. "What we do see
is that unit labor costs are very, very soft, and ultimately
that's what the Fed controls."
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,
rose 0.13% to 101.36, with the euro down 0.35% at
$1.1381. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar last
weakened 0.07% to 162.43.
Futures imply no move from the Fed in its meeting late this
month, while a hike in September is priced in.
In late morning trading on Wednesday in New York, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 239.04 points, or 0.46%, to
52,558.24, the S&P 500 rose 15.04 points, or 0.20%, to
7,514.40 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 34.22 points, or
0.13%, to 26,179.50.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose
0.61 point, or 0.05%, to 1,121.07, and the pan-European STOXX
600 index fell 0.31%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst
300 index fell 10.51 points, or 0.41%. Emerging market
stocks rose 0.82 point, or 0.05%, to 1,723.71.
In Asia, Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6% after surging
37% last quarter, with strong tech demand lifting sentiment
among big manufacturers to an eight-year high. South Korea's
main index fell about 2%, following a 68% rally last
quarter driven by AI-fuelled chip demand.
In energy markets, oil prices fell as optimism over
U.S.-Iran talks eased supply concerns.
"The negotiations that are currently taking place in Qatar
are perceived as being positive (and) that has allowed prices to
drift further," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. "There is a
chance that we could see even lower prices."
U.S. crude fell 1.74% to $68.29 a barrel and Brent
fell to $71.35 per barrel, down 2.19% on the day.
Despite sharp price declines last quarter, both are up nearly
20% year-to-date.
Spot gold jumped nearly 2% after posting on Tuesday
its largest quarterly drop since 2013.