* MSCI All-World up almost 14% in the quarter, largest pct
increase since 2020
* Dollar up 1.4% against peer currencies this quarter; EM
currencies hold their own
* Brent falls nearly 40% for the quarter, WTI down 30%
(Updates to U.S. stock market close)
By Rodrigo Campos and Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK/LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Stocks across the globe
on Tuesday posted their largest quarterly percentage increase in
six years, while Brent oil had its largest quarterly drop since
2020 as traders kept tabs on a fragile ceasefire between the
United States and Iran.
On the last day of the second quarter, the U.S. dollar
posted its fourth straight quarterly rise against a basket of
peers, while pushing the yen to a 40-year low, as
expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes shifted dramatically.
Emerging market currencies as a bloc gained over
1% to the greenback throughout the quarter.
In energy markets, the Strait of Hormuz has reopened
gradually and haphazardly as hostilities between the U.S. and
Iran receded into a fragile ceasefire, knocking almost 40% off
the price of Brent oil over the past three months.
A seemingly unstoppable boom in artificial intelligence
stocks kept the equities rally going for the quarter, with South
Korea's KOSPI up 68% and Taiwan's benchmark up
45%. The Nasdaq Composite added more than 21%. The MSCI
All-World index gained 14.5% in the quarter and
touched a record high earlier this month, marking its best
quarterly performance since 2020. Emerging market stocks
were up 23% for the period.
Europe's STOXX 600, which does not have nearly as
many AI beneficiaries as many Asian or U.S. indexes, ended up
10% for the quarter.
"In spite of all the geopolitical stuff, the U.S. economy is
performing well and corporate earnings are strong," said Oliver
Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire
Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. ""We've had a great first
half of the year, certainly better than most expected."
For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 136.46
points, or 0.26%, to 52,319.20, a record closing high. The S&P
500 rose 58.93 points, or 0.79%, to 7,499.36 and the
Nasdaq Composite rose 393.58 points, or 1.52%, to
26,213.72.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose
8.32 points, or 0.75%, to 1,120.37. The pan-European STOXX 600
index rose 0.88%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300
index rose 23.73 points, or 0.93%. Emerging market
stocks rose 16.86 points, or 0.99%, to 1,723.79,
while Japan's Nikkei ended up 594.21 points, or 0.86%,
to 70,062.32.
DOLLAR UP
The dollar has been the standout winner this quarter among
developed currencies, gaining 1.3% against a basket of
peers. Yet emerging market currencies have also strengthened
1.3% this quarter against the greenback.
The dollar has found support as markets increasingly price
in the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes. U.S. inflation
remains well above target, the economy continues to grow and the
Fed's latest quarterly projections show nine of 19 policymakers
anticipate a rate hike by year-end.
"The dollar has strengthened further since the (Fed)
meeting, supported by widening growth differentials that we've
started to see between the U.S. and other major economies which
were amplified by higher oil prices," said James Lord, head of
FX EM strategy at Morgan Stanley.
"Recent economic data points to stronger U.S. performance,
particularly against the eurozone, where growth indicators have
been comparatively softer."
The world's most influential central bankers are in the
Portuguese town of Sintra this week for the European Central
Bank's annual meeting, and no one will be more in the spotlight
than new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to
address the gathering on Wednesday.
The dollar's rise has partly driven gold to a 14%
quarterly drop, its largest such fall since 2013, while the yen
fell to its weakest point in 40 years to trade around
162.57 per dollar late on Tuesday. Traders were on edge about a
possible Japanese intervention, with Finance Minister Satsuki
Katayama issuing another warning.
Katayama's comments "avoided the verbal escalation that
often precedes a buying effort, instead reiterating that
authorities stand ready to respond at any time," said Karl
Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.
Brent crude futures for August settled 0.3% lower on the
day at $72.92 per barrel. The contract posted its third-straight
monthly decline, down over 20% in June and off 38% for the
quarter. U.S. crude fell 31% this quarter, yet both Brent
and WTI are close to 20% higher year to date.
"I wouldn't say the market has priced out a risk premium,
but previously stranded ships have become available with the
increase in ships moving out of the Gulf, creating a temporary
wave of new supply," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
Morgan Stanley said it now models an implied global oil
market surplus of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2027.