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Shares steady in Europe, Treasuries firm

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Futures imply 59% chance of outsized Fed rate cut

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China data disappoints, adding to case for stimulus

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Trump safe after FBI prevents second assassination attempt

(Updates prices at 1128 GMT)

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Global stocks edged up for

a sixth day on Monday, in a week that is almost certain to see

the start of an easing cycle in the United States that investors

believe may begin with an outsized move.

Central banks in Japan and the UK also meet this week, with

both expected to stand pat for now, while a packed data schedule

includes U.S. retail sales and industrial production.

Geopolitics loomed large with Republican presidential

candidate Donald Trump the subject of a second assassination

attempt on Sunday, according to the FBI.

But the key focus on Monday was the growing expectation for

the Federal Reserve to cut rates by half a point after its

meeting this week, as it seeks to keep the economy on course for

a soft landing, in light of slowing jobs growth and moderating

inflation.

The MSCI All-World index headed for a sixth

straight rise, up 0.1%. The index has rallied 10% in the last

six weeks as enthusiasm about a chunky Fed rate cut has boosted

stocks.

"Whether or not the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps or 50 bps the

market reaction will depend on two things: how they communicate

the cut and their reasons for cutting by 50 bps, and also the

Dot Plot and what it tells us about Fed members' current

expectations for the terminal rate," XTB research director

Kathleen Brooks said.

"If the Fed does start by cutting 50 bps, but at the same

time reiterates that it is doing so to preserve the economy's

soft landing, this is stock-market positive. If it sounds like

the Fed has to panic cut interest rates because of some grey

cloud on the horizon, then expect stocks to sell off," she said.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures dipped

0.1%, suggesting a flat start for the benchmark indices after

the S&P 500 last week secured its strongest weekly

performance this year.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 held steady, having pared

earlier losses, as investors booked some profit on last week's

1% rally.

Economic data from China over the weekend showed industrial

output growth slowed to a five-month low in August, while retail

sales and new home prices weakened further.

Economists at Goldman Sachs and Citigroup cut their

forecasts for Chinese growth to 4.7% in 2024.

A slew of public holidays across Asia kept equity market

activity subdued.

YEN ON A ROLL

As for the Fed, futures show traders are placing a

59% chance of a half-point cut, up from 30% a week ago.

The odds have narrowed sharply after media reports revived

the prospect of a more aggressive easing.

Treasuries have rallied sharply, bringing the yield on the

rate-sensitive two-year note down 35 bps since the

start of September alone. On Monday, it was trading down 1.5 bps

on the day at 3.561%, about its lowest for two years.

The Bank of England is expected to leave rates on hold at

5.00% when it meets on Thursday, though markets have priced in a

31% chance of another cut.

The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and is widely expected to

hold steady, though it may lay the groundwork for a further

tightening in October.

Lower Treasury yields gave the Japanese yen another boost

against the dollar, which fell 0.5% on the day to 140.11,

skimming a 14-month low.

The euro rose 0.4% to $1.112, with the prospect of

more rate cuts from the European Central Bank keeping a lid on

the currency at $1.1200.

Lower bond yields underpinned gold, which rose 0.2% to

$2,582 an ounce and near an all-time peak of $2,588.81.

Oil prices rose as nearly a fifth of crude oil production in

the Gulf of Mexico remained offline.

Brent rose 0.4% to $71.91 a barrel, while U.S. crude

rose 0.5% to $69.02.

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Shri

Navaratnam, Sharon Singleton, William Maclean)