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Shares dip in Europe, Treasuries firm

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Futures imply 60% chance of outsized Fed rate cut

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China data disappoints, adding to case for stimulus

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Trump safe after FBI prevents second assassination attempt

(Updates throughout at 0711 GMT)

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) -

Global stocks edged up for a sixth day on Monday, in a week

that is almost certain to see the start of an easing cycle in

the United States that investors believe may begin with an

outsized move.

Central banks in Japan and the UK also meet this week, with

both expected to stand pat for now, while a packed data schedule

includes U.S. retail sales and industrial production.

Geopolitics loomed large with Republican presidential

candidate Donald Trump the subject of a second assassination

attempt on Sunday, according to the FBI.

But the key focus on Monday was the growing expectation for

the Federal Reserve to cut rates by half a point after its

meeting this week, as it seeks to keep the economy on course for

a soft landing, in light of slowing jobs growth and moderating

inflation.

As European trading got up and running, the MSCI All-World

index headed for a sixth straight rise, up 0.1%.

The index has rallied 10% in the last six weeks as enthusiasm

around a chunky Fed rate cut has boosted stocks.

"Whether or not the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps or 50 bps

the market reaction will depend on two things: how they

communicate the cut and their reasons for cutting by 50 bps, and

also the Dot Plot and what it tells us about Fed members'

current expectations for the terminal rate," XTB research

director Kathleen Brooks said.

"If the Fed does start by cutting 50 bps, but at the

same time reiterates that it is doing so to preserve the

economy's soft landing, this is stock-market positive. If it

sounds like the Fed has to panic cut interest rates because of

some grey cloud on the horizon, then expect stocks to sell off,"

she said.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures dipped

0.1%-0.2% suggesting a flat start for the benchmark indices

after the S&P 500 secured its strongest weekly

performance this year last week.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 slipped 0.3% in early

trading, as investors took some profit on last week's 1% rally.

Economic data from China over the weekend showed industrial

output growth slowed to a five-month low in August, while retail

sales and new home prices weakened further.

Economists at Goldman Sachs and Citigroup cut their

forecasts for Chinese growth to 4.7% in 2024.

A slew of public holidays across Asia kept equity market

activity subdued.

YEN ON A ROLL

As for the Fed, futures show traders are placing a

60% chance of a half-point cut, up from 30% a week ago.

The odds have narrowed sharply after media reports

revived the prospect of a more aggressive easing.

Treasuries have rallied sharply, bringing the yield on the

rate-sensitive two-year note down 35 bps since the

start of September alone. On Monday, it was trading down 2 bps

on the day at 3.555%, around its lowest for two years.

The Bank of England is expected to leave rates on hold at

5.00% when it meets on Thursday, though markets have priced in a

31% chance of another cut.

The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and is widely expected to

hold steady, though it may lay the groundwork for a further

tightening in October.

Lower Treasury yields gave the Japanese yen another boost

against the dollar, which fell 0.7% on the day to 139.84, its

weakest for 14 months.

The euro rose 0.35% to $1.1112, with the prospect

of more rate cuts from the European Central Bank keeping a lid

on the currency at $1.1200.

Lower bond yields underpinned gold, which rose 0.3% to

$2,583 an ounce and near an all-time peak of $2,588.81.

Oil prices rose as nearly a fifth of crude oil production in

the Gulf of Mexico remained offline.

Brent rose 0.5% to $71.97 a barrel, while U.S. crude

rose 0.7% to trade at $69.12.

(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Shri

Navaratnam and Sharon Singleton)