* Rate futures imply no Fed move this month, while a
September hike is priced in
* Fed's Warsh says inflation expectations have eased, policy
won't be loose
* US crude fell 1.83% to $68.23 a barrel while Brent dropped
2.21% to $71.34
(Updates prices, adds context throughout, changes oil comment
in paragraph 14)
By Rodrigo Campos and Danilo Masoni
NEW YORK/MILAN, July 1 (Reuters) - A gauge of stock markets
around the world was little changed to start the quarter on
Wednesday as the U.S. central bank head said inflation
expectations have fallen but policy won't be loose, while crude
oil prices were down as optimism over U.S.-Iran talks eased
supply concerns.
Traders also watched for possible Japanese intervention in the
currency market after the yen touched fresh 40-year lows against
the dollar, even if it rebounded later in the session.
Speaking on a panel of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal,
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh said inflation expectations
and inflation risks have come down in recent weeks. He said he
will stick firmly to the U.S. central bank's 2% inflation target
and "disappoint" anyone who expects loose monetary policy.
His comments weighed on the dollar, which has been
underpinned by rising expectations of Fed rate hikes this year,
as inflation runs well above the central bank's 2% annual
target. Still, many analysts believe the inflation picture will
improve in the months ahead.
"Nothing that we see suggests that any imbalance either on
the activity side or the inflation side is growing rapidly,"
said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North
America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank's New York
branch.
"You can afford to wait and see how these longer-term
technological trends play out," Englander added. "What we do see
is that unit labor costs are very, very soft, and ultimately
that's what the Fed controls."
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a
basket of major currencies, rose 0.15% to 101.39, with the euro
down 0.36% at $1.1379. the yen was last flat on the day
against the dollar.
Interest rate futures imply no move from the Fed at its meeting
late this month, while a hike in September is priced in.
Trades also eyed Thursday's economic data expected to show U.S.
employers added 110,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate
holding steady at 4.3%, according to the median estimate of
economists polled by Reuters. The ADP National Employment Report
on Wednesday showed that private employment rose by 98,000 jobs
last month, below economists' forecasts for 118,000 job gains.
In afternoon trading on Wednesday in New York, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 50.38 points, or 0.10%, to
52,368.89, the S&P 500 rose 3.37 points, or 0.04%, to
7,502.61 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 69.65 points, or
0.27%, to 26,143.71.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell
0.68 points, or 0.06%, to 1,119.78. The pan-European STOXX 600
index fell 0.38%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300
index fell 11.45 points, or 0.45%. Emerging market
stocks rose 0.70 points, or 0.04%, to 1,723.59.
Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6% after surging 37% last
quarter, with strong tech demand lifting sentiment among big
manufacturers to an eight-year high. South Korea's main index
fell about 2%, following a 68% rally last quarter driven
by AI-fuelled chip demand.
In energy markets, oil prices fell as optimism over
U.S.-Iran talks eased supply concerns.
"There's more optimism as more oil goes through the Strait of
Hormuz," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures
Group. "The market is signalling that once we get past this, the
gloves are going to come off and we're going to probably produce
more oil in the world than we ever have."
U.S. crude fell 1.83% to $68.23 a barrel and Brent
fell to $71.34 per barrel, down 2.21% on the day.
Despite sharp price declines last quarter, both are up almost
20% year-to-date.
Spot gold rose 1.4% after posting on Tuesday its
largest quarterly drop since 2013.