(Updates to close of US markets)
* Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE to weigh in on economic outlook this
week
* Oil prices rise amid Iran-UAE tensions
* Fed expected to hold rates steady amid current oil
shock
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Global stocks advanced on
Tuesday for a second straight session, even as the war in Iran
kept driving up oil prices and ahead of a flurry of policy
announcements from global central banks this week.
Israel said it killed Iran's security chief, while a senior
Iranian official said the new supreme leader rejected
de-escalation offers conveyed by intermediaries.
President Donald Trump told reporters the United States is not
ready to leave the military operation in Iran yet, but that
"we'll be leaving in pretty much the very near future."
U.S. crude settled up 2.9% to $96.21 a barrel and Brent
climbed 3.2% to settle at $103.42 per barrel, supported
by Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates that stoked
supply fears while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut.
Both contracts were off earlier gains of about 5% but remained
up more than 40% for the month.
MAJOR S&P SECTORS ADVANCE
On Wall Street, U.S. stocks closed higher, led by a 1% rise in
the S&P 500 energy index. Despite rising fuel costs,
airline and travel stocks also advanced after Delta Air
and American Airlines ( AAL ) flagged strong spring demand while
investor focus turned to the Federal Reserve's policy
announcement on Wednesday.
"The place where we could get in trouble with this is if the
Fed views the oil shock as inflationary and decides to respond
with more hawkish monetary policy," said Ross Mayfield, an
investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management." The
best-case scenario would be some confirmation tomorrow
(Wednesday) that the Fed is monitoring the situation, but kind
of adheres to what they've done in the past, which is try to
look through big oil shocks."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 47.40
points, or 0.10%, to 46,993.81, the S&P 500 rose 16.75
points, or 0.25%, to 6,716.13 and the Nasdaq Composite
climbed 105.35 points, or 0.47%, to 22,479.53.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose
5.19 points, or 0.51%, to 1,013.34 and was poised for its first
back-to-back daily gains in three weeks, while the pan-European
STOXX 600 closed up 0.67%, buoyed by energy and
utilities stocks.
Stocks have struggled since the war in Iran started. HSBC
global equity strategist Alastair Pinder said in a note that
while "talk of a shift toward stagflation is building" the
recent action in equity markets "is more indicative of trading
for a recessionary outcome."
The jump in oil prices and its potential to boost inflation
have prompted markets to adjust expectations for easing by
global central banks this year.
Markets are pricing in about 26 basis points of cuts from
the U.S. Federal Reserve by year-end, down from more than 50
basis points earlier this week, and 36 basis points of hikes
from the European Central Bank after pricing in a modest chance
of a cut as recently as February, according to LSEG data.
While investors were largely not pricing in any cuts from
the Fed at Wednesday's policy announcement, the timing of any
future reductions has been pushed further out this year.
Stock markets rallied on Monday as oil prices dipped on hopes
shipping flows from the Gulf would improve and optimism about
artificial intelligence lifted U.S. tech companies.
CENTRAL BANKS GRAPPLE WITH ENERGY PRICES
The Reserve Bank of Australia voted on Tuesday to hike interest
rates for a second straight month, taking its benchmark rate to
4.1% and warning of a material inflation risk from the Iran war.
Goldman Sachs analysts said the risk of a third straight
hike is "material" but not their base case.
The move set the tone ahead of policy statements this week
from central banks in the United States, Britain, euro zone,
Japan, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden, all of which will meet
for the first time since the start of the Iran war. Investors
will look for clues on how higher crude prices could influence
the rate outlook.
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, and
policymakers are likely to strike a cautious, if not hawkish,
tone due to the current oil shock.
The shifts in central bank expectations have led to large
moves in government bonds recently, although that market was
subdued on Tuesday.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell
1.8 basis points to 4.202% but is up about 24 basis points for
March. The two-year note yield, which typically moves
in step with Fed rate expectations, fell 0.9 basis point to
3.672% but is up nearly 30 basis points for the month.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of currencies, shed 0.27% to 99.59, with the
euro up 0.28% at $1.1535.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.02% to
159.03, just below the key 160 level that has previously
triggered interventions by the Bank of Japan, despite verbal
warnings from Japanese authorities on Tuesday.