*
Greenback, 10-year Treasury yields retreat from 3-month
peaks
*
Surprise drop in US jobless claims continues run of robust
data
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Hawkish Fed bets to be tested by monthly payrolls data on
Nov. 1
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Mega-cap earnings due next week from Alphabet, Amazon ( AMZN ),
Meta
(Updates prices)
By Naomi Rovnick and Kevin Buckland
LONDON/TOKYO, Oct 25 (Reuters) -
Global stocks were set to end the week lower as looming U.S
data and Japan's weekend election curbed a rally already knocked
off course by the close-run race for the White House and
expectations the Federal Reserve will resist rapid rate cuts.
MSCI's broad world equity index was steady
on the day but heading for a 1.2% slide on the week, its first
weekly loss of the month, while European shares also
started the day 0.2% lower.
U.S. Treasuries
drew buyers
on Friday but were still heading for a sixth straight
losing week, futures markets tipped Wall Street's S&P 500
for lacklustre trading later in the day and the dollar
drooped.
A parade of pivotal events for markets is about to
start, with Japan's
parliamentary election
on Sunday and the keenly-watched monthly U.S. payrolls
report on Friday.
Earnings are also due from tech mega-caps Alphabet,
Amazon ( AMZN ), Apple ( AAPL ), Meta, and Microsoft ( MSFT ). The U.S. presidential
election follows on Nov. 5, with a Fed rate decision two days
later.
Markets have
tilted towards Donald Trump returning to the White House,
driving Wall Street stocks to record highs earlier this month on
bets that business tax cuts would shield the economy from
additional inflation triggered by his proposed import tariff
hikes.
But with the Republican candidate Trump and Democrat
Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck in crucial swing
states, investors are anxious about a contested result roiling
world markets and unleashing fresh geopolitical uncertainty.
"I think we might have two or three months of maximum
uncertainty and social risk. And the markets would not like that
at all," Carmignac chief economist for cross-asset Raphael
Gallardo said.
Britain's 10-year gilt yield, at 4.212%, is
up 18 basis points this week amid fears of disorderly moves
around the Oct. 30 Budget, where finance minister Rachel Reeves
has hinted she may loosen debt rules to increase borrowing.
VOLATILITY
Indices that track predictions of market volatility have
risen this week, with the VIX gauge of expected swings on
the S&P 500 climbing to a reading of 19, up from about 15 a
month ago.
The MOVE index of bond market volatility is close to
its highest point in a year and euro volatility hit an
18-month high on Thursday.
Gold eased 0.3% on Friday to $2,727 per ounce
after hitting a record on Wednesday as haven buying ramped up.
The euro was flat at $1.0823, down sharply from
about $1.12 a month ago. Sterling, at $1.297, has
swooned almost 3% lower this month.
Ahead of the Nov. 1 monthly payrolls report that
Fed-watchers scrutinise for monthly policy clues, data overnight
showed an unexpected drop in weekly applications for U.S.
unemployment aid.
The Fed cut borrowing costs by 50 bps in September in
its first such move since 2020, but money markets have dropped
earlier bets for another jumbo move next month, with most
traders anticipating a quarter point reduction instead.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury,
which moves inversely to the price of the debt instrument and
sets the tone for debt costs worldwide, stood at 4.1801% on
Friday after it touched a three-month top of 4.26% on Wednesday.
The dollar index, which measures the currency
against major peers, was little changed at 104.03 after hitting
a three-month peak on Wednesday.
EYES ON JAPAN
Polls suggest Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party,
which wants the BoJ to raise ultra-low interest rates, may lose
its majority and need to enter coalition with opposition parties
who back continued monetary stimulus.
Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.7% on Friday and the yen
was steady at 151.87 per dollar after Japanese
officials warned speculators off betting against the currency,
which has weakened rapidly from around 141 in mid-September.
Elsewhere in Asia Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.5% and
mainland Chinese shares added 0.7%.
Brent crude futures added 0.3% to $74.66 a
barrel.