* Traders move to price in hikes for BoE and ECB this
year
* Fed seen leaving rates on hold
* Hawkish rate repricing hits bonds
* Oil prices, shares remain choppy
(Updates throughout)
By Sophie Kiderlin and Rae Wee
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 20 (Reuters) - Global shares
nudged higher but were still headed towards a weekly loss on
Friday, while bonds steadied somewhat after the previous day's
rout as central bankers warned that the Middle East war could
reignite inflation.
A brief dip in oil prices earlier in the day offered some
temporary relief for markets, but trading stayed choppy and
nerves frayed, highlighting how brittle investor confidence
remains.
Following a busy week of monetary policy meetingsacross the
Group of Seven nations and others, the key takeaway for
investors has been the prospect of a more aggressive policy
tightening path.
"Clearly central banks have learned that it's very dangerous
to say that an energy shock is purely transitory," said Sandra
Horsfield, economist at Investec, while also noting the risk of
both direct and indirect effects.
"So hence we have a more hawkish-sounding reaction."
Traders are no longer expecting a Federal Reserve rate cut
this year, while futures imply a more than 50%
chance of a hike from the Bank of England next month
. Sources said the European Central Bank may need to
begin discussing rate increases in April and possibly tighten
policy in June, while markets saw an April hike from
the ECB as a coin toss.
"For the time being, though, sending a more hawkish message
seems a very sensible thing. But again, it's hawkish, but it's
not immediate action," Horsfield said.
A rout in global bonds pushed yields to multi-month highs on
Thursday, though markets appeared to be steadying to some extent
on Friday.
Germany's two-year yield, which is up over 57
basis points for the month, was last up 1.7 bps at 2.58%. Yields
on two-year British gilts were just over 3 bps higher
at 4.44%, having jumped close to 92 bps this month already.
In equities, Europe's cross-regional STOXX 600 rose
0.4% on Friday, but was still on track for a 1.7% weekly
decline, while the MSCI All-World index was set
to fall for the third consecutive week.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
fell 0.5% on Friday. Nasdaq futures and
S&P 500 futures both nudged lower.
ENERGY CHOKEHOLD
Brent crude futures were 0.86% higher at $109.58 a
barrel, reversing earlier declines, while U.S. crude was
little changed, also after having pulled back earlier. Leading
European nations and Japan offered to join efforts to secure
safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S.
outlined moves to boost oil supply.
Natural gas prices have also soared, with those in Europe
skyrocketing as much as 35% on Thursday, as Iranian and Israeli
strikeshit some of the Middle East's most important gas
infrastructure.
That prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to tell Israel not
to repeat its attacks on Iranian natural gas infrastructure.
"Even if the U.S. leaves (the conflict), Israel might not
leave, and there may still be some strikes and Iran will
retaliate, maybe at a lower volume," said Alicia Garcia-Herrero,
chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis.
"But this means that the Gulf will still be under
pressure... so oil prices will not go back to $60, they will
maybe stay at $90, at least until the end of the year. So the
shock is already unavoidable."
DOLLAR FALLS FROM PEAK
The dollar was set for a weekly loss of roughly 1.1%,
despite nudging higher on Friday, as the Fed is now seen as the
only major central bank that is not expected to raise rates this
year.
That kept the euro holding onto most of Thursday's
1.2% gains to fetch $1.1562, while sterling dipped 0.22%
to $1.34, after a 1.3% rise the previous day.
The yen, which was on the cusp of 160 per dollar in
the previous session, last stood at 158.63.
The Japanese currency was also helped by some hawkish
comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday,
after the central bank held rates steady but maintained its bias
for tighter monetary policy.
In precious metals, spot gold was up 0.64% at around
$4,677 an ounce.