(Updates to US market open)
* Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE all due to weigh in on economic
outlook this week
* Oil prices rise amid Iran-UAE tensions
* US Fed expected to hold rates steady amid current oil
shock
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Global stocks rose on
Tuesday for a second straight session, even as the war in Iran
drove up oil prices and ahead of a flurry of policy
announcements from global central banks this week.
Israel said it killed Iran's security chief, while a senior
Iranian official said the new supreme leader had rejected
de-escalation offers conveyed by intermediaries.
U.S. crude rose 1.24% to $94.66 a barrel and Brent
climbed to $101.73 per barrel, up 1.52% as Iranian
attacks on the United Arab Emirates rekindled supply fears while
the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. Both Brent and U.S.
crude are up more than 40% for the month.
MAJOR S&P SECTORS ADVANCE
On Wall Street, U.S. stocks were higher in early trading,
led by a 1.7% rise in the S&P 500 financial index as
each of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors advanced.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 432.97 points,
or 0.92%, to 47,379.38, the S&P 500 gained 44 points, or
0.66%, to 6,743.38 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 146.77
points, or 0.66%, to 22,520.95.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose
8.7 points, or 0.86%, to 1,016.85 and was on track for its first
consecutive daily gains in three weeks, while the pan-European
STOXX 600 index rose 0.92%.
The jump in oil prices and its potential to boost inflation
have led markets to adjust expectations for easing policies from
global central banks this year.
Markets are pricing in about 27 basis points of cuts from
the U.S. Federal Reserve by the end of the year after pricing in
more than 50 basis points earlier this week, and roughly 35
basis points of hikes from the European Central Bank after
pricing in a modest chance of a cut this year as recently as
February, according to LSEG data.
While investors were largely not pricing in any cuts from
the Fed at Wednesday's policy announcement, the timing of any
future cuts has been pushed further out this year.
"There are too many moving parts in a regular economy and
then on top of it, we have this tremendously impactful conflict,
which will make it even more impossible for the Fed to discern
any patterns right now," said Peter Andersen, founder of
Andersen Capital Management.
"I would expect the Fed to stay on hold and to have a very
unremarkable transcript and press conference."
Operations at the UAE's Shah gas field remained suspended on
Tuesday, while a new attack caused a fire in the key oil export
terminal of Fujairah, highlighting how Tehran is disrupting
energy flows from the region.
Stock markets rallied on Monday as oil prices dipped on hopes
shipping flows from the Gulf would improve and optimism about
artificial intelligence helped boost U.S. tech companies.
CENTRAL BANKS GRAPPLE WITH ENERGY PRICES
The Reserve Bank of Australia voted on Tuesday to hike interest
rates for a second straight month, taking its benchmark rate to
4.1% while warning of a material risk to inflation due to the
Middle East war.
It set the tone ahead of policy statements from central
banks in the U.S., Britain, euro zone, Japan, Canada,
Switzerland and Sweden this week, all of which will hold their
first meetings since the start of the Iran war. Investors will
look for clues on how rising crude prices could affect the
interest-rate path.
The U.S. Fed is largely expected to hold rates steady at its
policy announcement, and policymakers are more likely to strike
a cautious if not outright hawkish tone this week due to the
current oil shock.
The shifts in central bank expectations have led to large
moves in government bonds, although moves were subdued on
Tuesday.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell
1.8 basis points to 4.202% but is up about 25 basis points for
March. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves
in step with interest-rate expectations for the Federal Reserve,
fell 1.5 basis points to 3.665% but is up nearly 30 basis points
for the month.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of currencies, fell 0.33% to 99.53, with the
euro up 0.32% at $1.154.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.21% to
158.72, shy of the key 160 level that has sparked prior
interventions from the Bank of Japan, despite verbal warnings
from the Japanese authorities on Tuesday.