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S&P 500 futures rise; BlackRock ( BLK ), BNY report earnings
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Bond yields tick lower ahead of CPI; oil steady
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Pound holds, gilts soothed by UK inflation
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Sterling, gilts in focus ahead of UK CPI data
(Updates with late morning European pricing)
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Global stocks edged up on
Wednesday in cautious trading ahead of U.S. consumer price data
that could shift the country's monetary policy outlook, while
investors waited to see if the earnings of big U.S. banks would
match sky-high expectations.
The bond market got some respite from the recent heavy
selling, as yields on Treasuries ticked lower and those on
German 10-year Bunds broke their second-longest
stretch of price losses in over 40 years.
Wall Street futures rose 0.2-0.3% by midday in
Europe, where the regional STOXX 600 index rallied 0.7%
on the day, led mostly by gains in rate-sensitive UK
homebuilders, after data showed an unexpected cooling in British
inflation.
BlackRock ( BLK ), the world's largest money manager, was
one of the first major financial companies to report earnings on
Wednesday. The company said assets under management hit a record
$11.6 trillion in the fourth quarter.
U.S. bank BNY reported a rise in fourth-quarter
profit ahead of bigger rivals JPMorgan ( JPM ) and Citigroup ( C/PN )
before the opening bell and ahead of consumer inflation
numbers that could inform expectations of what the Federal
Reserve might do to interest rates this year.
ADM Investor Services Chief Global Economist Marc Ostwald
said the central bank's "Beige Book" for December, which
captures anecdotal evidence of conditions across the 12 Federal
Reserve districts, reported an uptick in economic activity, but
an expectation for price pressures to persist.
"Given the strength of the latest labour data, and expected
strength in this week's activity data, the data will likely
strengthen the Fed's resolve to pause its rate cutting cycle,"
he said.
Right now, the swaps market shows traders believe there is
only likely to be one rate cut this year, with a second
quarter-point reduction being a more distant possibility, as
just 31.4 basis points of easing are priced in.
This was closer to 45 bps about a week ago, before the
December employment report on Friday showed robust jobs growth.
PIVOT POINT
For the CPI report, forecasts are centred on a small 0.2%
rise in the core measure, with risks skewed to the upside. A
strong reading of 0.3% or more could see the selloff in global
stocks and bonds resume.
"This CPI print is a pivot data point. A dovish print likely
reignites the rally which is likely to get a boost from a strong
earnings period," said analysts at JPMorgan ( JPM ) in a note to
clients.
"A hawkish print could see the 10Y yield make a run at 5%,
increasing volatility across all asset classes, and continuing
to pressure equities."
Overnight, U.S. producer price data for December was
surprisingly tame, with the core measure flat in the month. That
restrained the U.S. dollar and pulled short-term Treasury yields
off their highs.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. yield was down 2 bps at 4.768%,
having hit a 14-month high near 4.8% earlier this week.
Benchmark yields in Europe also ticked lower. German 10-year
yields were down 2 bps at 2.6%, having risen for 10 straight
days at Tuesday's close - the longest stretch of increases since
February 22, which at 11 days was the longest since a 13-day
stretch of rises in May 1981, according to LSEG data.
Yields on UK government bonds, or gilts, fell
more sharply with the 10-year down 8.1 bps at 4.808%, after data
showed British inflation rose less than expected in December.
Gilts have been at the centre of this month's bonds selloff,
pushing long-dated yields to their highest since the late 1990s
over concerns about UK government finances.
On the currency markets, the pound was mostly
unchanged on the day at $1.223, while the Japanese yen was one
of the strongest performers. The dollar fell 0.66% to 156.93 yen
as markets now see a 70% chance the Bank of Japan will raise
interest rates in January after Governor Kazuo Ueda said
policy-makers would discuss such an option next week.
In commodities, oil prices stabilised around $80 a barrel
after a 1% drop on Tuesday.
(Additional reporting by Stella Qiu in Sydney and Caroline
Valetkevitch in New York; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Kim
Coghill, Barbara Lewis and Jane Merriman)