* Hopes of Strait of Hormuz opening lifts risk assets
* Nikkei surges to record high, US stock futures gain
* Dollar stumbles as investors rush out of safe haven;
oil slides
* Conflicting messages on peace deal keeps enthusiasm
grounded
(Updates to Asia morning)
By Ankur Banerjee and Ruth Chai
SINGAPORE, May 25 (Reuters) - Stocks surged on Monday
while the U.S. dollar and oil prices slid as the prospect of a
deal to end the Iran war buoyed risk appetite although a lack of
clarity over when the Strait of Hormuz would open kept
enthusiasm in check.
The nearly three-month-long conflict in the Middle East has
driven energy prices sharply higher and reshaped the global
rates outlook, as inflation concerns intensify following
Tehran's effective shutdown of the key strait through which a
significant share of the world's energy flows.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had told his
representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran, as his
administration played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough.
Just a day earlier, Trump said Washington and Iran had
"largely negotiated" a memorandum of understanding on a deal
that would reopen the waterway, which carried one-fifth of
global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war.
Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said markets
have become less focused on the timing of a resolution and
instead been keeping an eye on the tone of the headlines.
"The tone has been consistently towards some sort of
resolution... We've become very patient for a resolution
deadline."
OIL PRICE SETS THE TONE FOR MARKETS
For much of the year, oil prices have steered broader
markets as investors sift through often conflicting signals from
Washington and Tehran, with both sides locked in negotiations
since a fragile ceasefire took hold in April.
On Monday, oil prices hit two-week lows to kickstart the
week with Brent crude futures down over 4% to $98.83 a
barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $92.03
a barrel, also down over 4%.
The euro was up 0.33% at $1.1646, while the Japanese yen
firmed to 158.85 per U.S. dollar as the safe-haven dollar gave
up some of its recent gains.
Nasdaq futures were 1.2% higher and S&P futures
were up 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei jumped 3% to roar
past the 65,000 level for the first time. MSCI's broadest index
of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1%.
Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global, expects
the market to embrace more risk during the session but a
sustained surge is unlikely until there is confirmation that the
Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
"We will need to see an agreement out in place in the coming
sessions as we know there are still some major sticking points,"
he said.
Liquidity is likely to be thin as markets in the U.S., UK,
Hong Kong and South Korea are closed.
RATE EXPECTATIONS RESET
Prolonged energy disruptions from the conflict risk pushing
up prices worldwide, prompting traders to bet on further rate
hikes across both developed and emerging markets.
Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point hike from
the U.S. Federal Reserve in January 2027, a sharp shift from
expectations before hostilities erupted in late February, when
two rate cuts this year were anticipated.
The 30-year Treasury bond's yield, which is seen
as a barometer of geopolitical and fiscal risk, briefly touched
its highest level since July 2007 last week but has pulled back
from that milestone. There was no cash trading on Monday but
30-year futures climbed 17 ticks.
Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a
record low in May as surging gasoline prices linked to the Iran
war intensified affordability concerns just as Kevin Warsh was
sworn in as chair of the Fed.
Mark Dowding, CIO for Fixed Income at RBC BlueBay Asset
Management, said Warsh is likely to look past near-term elevated
price data, but warned that the risk of a rate hike will
continue to build as long as inflation remains on an upward
trajectory.