* European equities and US stock futures in positive
territory
* Iran conflict back in focus but oil prices drop amid
signals of lower demand
* US dollar reverses earlier rise, euro up
* Traders price in a 65% chance of Fed staying on hold next
month
(Adds comments on US fiscal deficit, updates prices)
By Stefano Rebaudo
Aug 13 (Reuters) - Stocks rose and oil prices dropped on
Thursday,even as investors shifted their attention back to the
Iran war after softer-than-expected U.S. data reinforced
expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged
next month.
Oil prices slipped 2% to $87.30, as signals of lower demand
outweighed the ongoing stalemate in peace negotiations over
Iran. Commercial crude oil inventories posted their largest
weekly gain since January 2023, and the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its world oil demand
growth forecast for 2026.
Traders scaled back their bets on a September rate hike,
pricing in a 65% probability of the Fed staying on hold next
month versus 50% on Wednesday before the release of the latest
economic data and inflation figures.
A raft of upbeat earnings from AI infrastructure firms
boosted technology stocks on Wall Street and Asian equities
overnight with the U.S. broader semiconductor index
advancing about 2.5%, the biggest daily rise in almost a week,
and the Nasdaq outperforming peers.
MSCI's main world stocks index rose 0.20%.
Europe's STOXX 600 was up 0.26%, with tech stocks
rising 0.36%.
Nasdaq futures edged 0.08% and S&P 500 futures
increased 0.13%. The S&P index hit an all-time
high last week.
"Earnings season (for AI infrastructure names) has been
strong and shows no signs of slowdown in Capex," Mohit Kumar, an
economist at Jefferies, said, before stating the bank remained
with an overweight position in the AI sector.
"The background of high amounts of cash in the system and
Fed not hiking (Jefferies view) should continue to support risky
assets," he added.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
rose 1.08%, led by South Korean shares
jumping 3.78%. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.67% on
chip-related stocks and a robust earnings outlook.
Attention now shifts to the producer prices data, due later
in the day, for confirmation that inflation pressures are
moderating.
Washington and Tehran traded accusations on Thursday over a
deal to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with
the United States saying Iran had failed to meet its obligations
and Iran countering that Washington had not delivered on ending
a blockade of Iranian ports.
CONCERNS ABOUT U.S. DEFICIT
The U.S. dollar edged higher to its strongest level in
nearly two weeks on concerns about the stalemate in Iran. High
energy prices are expected to weigh more heavily on the
economies of the euro zone and Japan, both large energy
importers, while the United States is seen as relatively
insulated from oil shocks.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,
was down 0.08% at 99.90 after hitting 100.08, its highest level
since July 31.
The euro, which by contrast benefits from lower oil prices,
was up 0.12% at $1.1537.
U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly, with analysts saying
the U.S. federal budget deficit's rise to $432 billion is likely
to add upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs.
"I would still be careful chasing rallies (in U.S.
Treasuries), especially in the back end, where supply, fiscal
concerns and oil-related term premium remain hard to dismiss,"
Mizuhostrategist Evelyne Gomez-Liechti said, recalling that PPI
data is the next test, alongside jobless claims and the 30-year
U.S. Treasury auction.
U.S. 30-year Treasury yields were not far from
their highest level in almost 30 years, down 1 basis point at
5.24%. They hit 5.2811% on July 31, their highest since summer
2007.
Against the yen, the dollar softened 0.08% to 159.33.
Expectations that the Bank of Japan would hike interest rates
next month, earlier than previously expected, were reinforced by
Japan's producer price index, which rose 7.2% in July from a
year earlier.