* Oil prices surge, stoking inflation fears
* Asia stocks down more than 6% this week, biggest fall
since March 2020
* Yields jump as rate expectations turn hawkish
By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, March 6 (Reuters) - Asia stocks fell on
Friday and were headed for their sharpest weekly drop in six
years while oil prices were poised for their biggest jump in
three in a turbulent week for global markets as the conflict in
the Middle East showed few signs of easing.
Investors sought the safety of cash as they sobered up to
the fact that the U.S.-Israel war on Iran could drag on longer
than initially anticipated.
They also moved to price in more hawkish rate expectations
from major central banks, spooked by the prospect of a
resurgence in inflation if the spike in energy prices persists.
Yields on U.S. Treasuries have shot up some 18 basis points
this week, their most in nearly a year, while the dollar was set
for its largest weekly gain in 16 months.
"The range of plausible outcomes (of the war) has expanded
to include both the possibility of an exceptionally constructive
resolution and a highly destructive one," said Daleep Singh,
chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income.
"Markets are being asked to price a much fatter set of tails
with very little reliable information about the likelihood of
each, or the path in between."
The war has thus far had the biggest impact on oil prices,
with Brent crude futures now trading around $83 per
barrel, having been as low as $69 just about a week ago. U.S.
crude shot up to a 20-month high earlier this week.
Both are set to clock a rise of more than 15% for the week,
their largest since February 2022.
"The most market-relevant risk lies in severe escalation or
direct infrastructure damage across key Gulf producers, which
would likely produce sustained upward pressure on oil, feed into
higher headline inflation, tighten global liquidity, and
materially raise recession risks," said Klay Group's senior
investment team.
HIGH-FLYING STOCKS TUMBLE
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
last traded 0.4% lower and was set to fall 6.6%
for the week, which would mark its steepest weekly drop since
March 2020.
Japan's Nikkei was down 0.5% and on track for a 6.5%
weekly loss, while South Korea's Kospi was also headed
for its largest weekly fall in six years with a 10.5% slide.
The market rout this week sent even high-flying technology
stocks and indexes such as the Kospi tumbling, as investors
scrambled to book profits to cover losses elsewhere.
"When the dollar rallies and U.S. yields rise, funding
conditions are tightening, which will often exacerbate broader
moves particularly if there's leverage involved," said Ben
Bennett, head of Asia investment strategy at L&G Asset
Management.
U.S. stock futures were steady in Asia on Friday, while
EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.6% and DAX futures
added 0.5%.
DOLLAR IS KING
The dollar has emerged as one of few winners this week in
volatile sessions that have dragged stocks, bonds and, at times,
even safe-haven precious metals lower.
The rally in the dollar hit pause on Friday, but it was
still on track for a 1.4% weekly gain, bolstered by
safe-haven demand and reduced U.S. rate-easing expectations.
The euro, which remains vulnerable to a spike in
energy prices, was set to fall 1.7% for the week, while sterling
was similarly headed for a 0.95% weekly drop.
Investors are now pricing in about 40 basis points worth of
easing from the Federal Reserve this year, down from 56 bps a
week ago, while odds for a rate cut from the Bank of
England this month have fallen to 23% from a near certainty just
last week.
The European Central Bank is seen hiking rates by year-end.
The shifting rate expectations have, in turn, pushed up
global bond yields, and in Asia on Friday, the yield on the
benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was steady at
4.1421%, having risen some 18 bps this week.
The two-year yield has jumped 20 bps for the
week.
Elsewhere, spot gold was steady at $5,078.88 an
ounce, though it was headed for a 3.7% weekly fall as rising
yields and a stronger dollar eclipsed the yellow metal's
safe-haven appeal.
(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)