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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks slip as Fed rate outlook offsets optimism over Iran deal
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks slip as Fed rate outlook offsets optimism over Iran deal
Jun 18, 2026 2:48 AM

* Oil falls 2.8% to about $77 a barrel, the lowest since

early March

* Tokyo and Seoul shares hit record highs overnight while

Europe's STOXX 600 slips 0.5%

* Money markets now fully expect a U.S. rate hike by October

(Updates throughout)

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, June 18 (Reuters) - Global stocks were torn on

Thursday between concern about the rising chances of a U.S. rate

hike this year after the Federal Reserve's meeting and optimism

over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States and Iran on Wednesday released the text of

their agreement, which extends a ceasefire announced in April by

another 60 days to allow the two sides to negotiate a truce. It

also includes the full resumption of maritime traffic "with no

charge" in the Strait of Hormuz.

Against that backdrop, oil dropped another 2.8% to around

$77 a barrel, the lowest since early March. Global stocks

dipped 0.1%, as futures and shares in Europe

fell, shaking off shares in Tokyo and Seoul hitting record highs

overnight.

The interim deal would mark a significant step toward

normalising crude supply and prices, but Yoshimasa Maruyama,

chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, cautioned

uncertainties remained.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to resume attacks and

kill Iranian officials if they failed to honour their

commitments.

"The current toll-free transit period is limited to 60 days,

and the future framework remains uncertain, leaving lingering

concerns," Maruyama said in a note.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, as declines in

energy shares like Shell and BP offset gains in

tech stocks like ASML, Infineon and

AI-exposed industrial group Schneider Electric.

Europe is more vulnerable to an increase in inflation from

higher oil prices than the United States and so falling oil

prices are good for European economies, but the weight of energy

shares on various national markets kept the pan-regional index

slightly in the red.

U.S. stock futures edged higher, with S&P 500 E-minis

and Nasdaq 100 E-minis up around 1%.

The dollar rose for a second day after the Fed, in its first

meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, left rates in a 3.50%-3.75%

range. Nearly half of its policymakers indicated they now expect

a hike this year, as concerns mount on inflation.

For his part, Warsh opened the new era with a sweeping policy

review and did not add his own forecasts for rates to the

so-called "dot plot" - a visual representation of where each

member expects rates to be over time.

Money markets show traders now fully expect a rate hike by

October, from a roughly 80% chance of a hike by the end of the

year earlier in the week.

"We had expected Warsh to sound critical of forward

guidance, but he has been even quicker than we thought at

introducing his style of leadership to the Fed. While some worry

that a lack of guidance from the Fed could confuse financial

markets, we think that the opposite is true. The laser focus on

prices could ultimately make it easier to predict what the Fed

does next," XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency

against six others, was a touch stronger at 100.46, near its

highest for two months. The euro was down 0.1% at $1.15,

while the pound was down 0.2% ahead of a Bank of England

meeting later in the day at which rates are widely expected to

remain unchanged.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year notes were last yielding

4.45%, down 1 basis point on the day, while two-year notes,

which are more sensitive to Fed expectations, were

also down 1 bp at 4.168%, having posted their worst daily

performance in three months the day before.

(Additional reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama in Tokyo; Editing by

Jamie Freed, Neil Fullick and Susan Fenton)

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