* Oil falls 2.8% to about $77 a barrel, the lowest since
early March
* Tokyo and Seoul shares hit record highs overnight while
Europe's STOXX 600 slips 0.5%
* Money markets now fully expect a U.S. rate hike by October
(Updates throughout)
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, June 18 (Reuters) - Global stocks were torn on
Thursday between concern about the rising chances of a U.S. rate
hike this year after the Federal Reserve's meeting and optimism
over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States and Iran on Wednesday released the text of
their agreement, which extends a ceasefire announced in April by
another 60 days to allow the two sides to negotiate a truce. It
also includes the full resumption of maritime traffic "with no
charge" in the Strait of Hormuz.
Against that backdrop, oil dropped another 2.8% to around
$77 a barrel, the lowest since early March. Global stocks
dipped 0.1%, as futures and shares in Europe
fell, shaking off shares in Tokyo and Seoul hitting record highs
overnight.
The interim deal would mark a significant step toward
normalising crude supply and prices, but Yoshimasa Maruyama,
chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, cautioned
uncertainties remained.
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to resume attacks and
kill Iranian officials if they failed to honour their
commitments.
"The current toll-free transit period is limited to 60 days,
and the future framework remains uncertain, leaving lingering
concerns," Maruyama said in a note.
In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, as declines in
energy shares like Shell and BP offset gains in
tech stocks like ASML, Infineon and
AI-exposed industrial group Schneider Electric.
Europe is more vulnerable to an increase in inflation from
higher oil prices than the United States and so falling oil
prices are good for European economies, but the weight of energy
shares on various national markets kept the pan-regional index
slightly in the red.
U.S. stock futures edged higher, with S&P 500 E-minis
and Nasdaq 100 E-minis up around 1%.
The dollar rose for a second day after the Fed, in its first
meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, left rates in a 3.50%-3.75%
range. Nearly half of its policymakers indicated they now expect
a hike this year, as concerns mount on inflation.
For his part, Warsh opened the new era with a sweeping policy
review and did not add his own forecasts for rates to the
so-called "dot plot" - a visual representation of where each
member expects rates to be over time.
Money markets show traders now fully expect a rate hike by
October, from a roughly 80% chance of a hike by the end of the
year earlier in the week.
"We had expected Warsh to sound critical of forward
guidance, but he has been even quicker than we thought at
introducing his style of leadership to the Fed. While some worry
that a lack of guidance from the Fed could confuse financial
markets, we think that the opposite is true. The laser focus on
prices could ultimately make it easier to predict what the Fed
does next," XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.
The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency
against six others, was a touch stronger at 100.46, near its
highest for two months. The euro was down 0.1% at $1.15,
while the pound was down 0.2% ahead of a Bank of England
meeting later in the day at which rates are widely expected to
remain unchanged.
Benchmark U.S. 10-year notes were last yielding
4.45%, down 1 basis point on the day, while two-year notes,
which are more sensitive to Fed expectations, were
also down 1 bp at 4.168%, having posted their worst daily
performance in three months the day before.
(Additional reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama in Tokyo; Editing by
Jamie Freed, Neil Fullick and Susan Fenton)