* MSCI All-World rose almost 14% in the quarter, its best
second-quarter performance since 2020
* The dollar gained 1.4% against major currencies this
quarter
* The yen touched 162.23 per dollar, its weakest level in 40
years
(Updates throughout)
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Global stocks were headed for
their best second-quarter performance in six years on Tuesday,
while a resurgent dollar pushed the yen to a four-decade low and
was headed for a fourth straight quarterly rise.
Within the past three months, the Strait of Hormuz has
re-opened gradually and haphazardly as hostilities between the
U.S. and Iran receded into a fragile ceasefire, knocking 20% off
the price of oil. In addition, a dramatic shift in
expectations for U.S. interest rates has occurred, against a
backdrop of a seemingly unstoppable boom in artificial
intelligence stocks.
The MSCI All-World index has risen almost
14% to record highs in the last three months, marking its best
second-quarter performance since 2020.
Most of the gains have been powered by a scorching rally in
anything AI-related, particularly in Asian markets, where
indexes in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
have logged double-digit percentage gains. The S&P 500 is
also up 14% and the Nasdaq, which welcomed $2 trillion
SpaceX to its ranks in June, has gained 20%.
"The one theme that's disappeared largely is monetary policy
support," said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich
Insurance Group. "At the beginning of the year, the futures
market was pricing further rate cuts. Now, that's changed. And
that's been a function largely of the situation with Iran and
the higher commodity prices."
"The take-away for us, however, is that while we're not
expecting further cuts from the central banks, we're not
expecting a start of a hiking cycle as such."
Europe's STOXX 600, which does not have nearly as
many AI beneficiaries as many Asian or U.S. indexes, was up
0.65%, heading for a quarterly gain of 10% - having risen every
month since March.
U.S. stock futures were up 0.2%, suggesting a modest
increase at the opening bell later.
THE WINNING DOLLAR
The dollar has been the standout winner this quarter in the
foreign exchange market, gaining 1.4% against a basket of
major currencies.
Investors are amassing bullish positions at a record pace
thanks to a remarkable re-pricing of the U.S. interest rate
outlook, which has flipped from cuts to hikes, due to the
surprising strength of the U.S. economy and persistent
inflationary pressures beyond energy prices.
The dollar's rise has driven gold to its largest
quarterly fall in more than a decade, while the yen has
been driven to its weakest point in 40 years to trade around
162.23 per dollar on Tuesday. Traders were already on edge about
possible Japanese intervention, with Finance Minister Satsuki
Katayama issuing another warning.
The world's most influential central bankers are in the
Portuguese town of Sintra this week for the European Central
Bank's annual meeting and no one will be more in the spotlight
than new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to
address the gathering on Wednesday.
Warsh's focus on inflation at his first meeting as head of
the Fed earlier this month prompted traders to almost fully
price in the prospect of a rate hike by October, but some
economists believe the economy is strong enough - and inflation
evident enough - to mean an increase could come as soon as July.
"Of all the major central banks, (Fed policymakers) are
probably the only ones where there's a plausible case that they
could go in July, that they could hike to get it out of the way,
in a way," said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, BNP Paribas group chief
economist.
"That's not our base case, but there's a very meaningful
probability that they might want to do that and really kind of
get it out of the way and move on."
But before Warsh's appearance, there is an array on Tuesday
of European inflation reports, as well as U.S. consumer
confidence data for June and the monthly hirings and firings
JOLTS report, as the clock ticks down to Thursday's U.S. monthly
jobs report.
(Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Tom
Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman,
Stephen Coates and Thomas Derpinghaus)