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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, Treasury yields gain as odds of Trump win increase
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, Treasury yields gain as odds of Trump win increase
Jul 15, 2024 3:14 PM

*

Dow registers record high close

*

PredictIt shows increased chance of Republican win

*

Crypto stocks higher

(Updates to 5:00 p.m. (2100 GMT))

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - World stock indexes and

Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors weighed the prospect

of Republican Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential race

after he survived an assassination attempt, while the dollar

dipped after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Longer-dated U.S. bond yields climbed on the assumption that

Trump policies would add to government debt and inflation, while

crypto stocks rallied along with bitcoin. Trump has

presented himself as a champion of cryptocurrency.

Investors have viewed a Trump win as likely to mean more tax

cuts and a looser regulatory environment. The S&P 500 energy

sector gained 1.6%.

On online betting website PredictIt, contracts for a Trump

election victory traded at 68 cents, up from 60 cents on Friday,

with a potential payout of $1. Contracts for a Biden victory

were at 26 cents.

The assassination attempt in Pennsylvania on Saturday of

Trump appeared to improve his chances for election. The motive

behind a 20-year-old gunman's attempt on the life of Trump

remained a mystery, with the suspect having been killed and the

FBI unable to determine an ideology that may have been behind

the attack.

"The publicity around the event is providing some kind of a

boost," said Josh Wein, portfolio manager at Hennessy Funds.

But, he said, "the last four, five days the (stock) market

has been rallying... so it's a continuation of a strong move

from the back half of last week since we realized that maybe

there is some reason to celebrate the idea that there could be

one and now likely two rate cuts by the end of the year."

Investors digested comments from Powell, who said on

Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter

of this year do "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of

price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a

sustainable fashion.

Traders are also pricing in a second and possible third rate

cut by December.

While all three major U.S. stock indexes ended well below

session highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched an

all-time closing high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.82 points,

or 0.53%, to 40,211.72, the S&P 500 gained 15.87 points,

or 0.28%, to 5,631.22 and the Nasdaq Composite gained

74.12 points, or 0.40%, to 18,472.57.

Shares of Goldman Sachs ( GS ) gained 2.6% after the company

reported quarterly results. More results are expected week for

the second-quarter U.S. earnings season.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose

0.18 points, or 0.02%, to 828.73. The STOXX 600 index

fell 1.02%.

Dour updates from British luxury group Burberry and

watchmaker Swatch Group raised questions about consumer

confidence.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback

against a basket of currencies, was last down 0.04% to 104.25,

with the euro down 0.01% at $1.0893. Against the Japanese

yen, the dollar strengthened 0.02% to 158.04.

The greenback fell to 157.15 as Powell spoke, its lowest

since June 17, before rebounding.

Bitcoin was last up slightly after it reached a three-week

high earlier of $63,838.86.

Benchmark 10-year yields rose 4 basis points to

4.229%, while two-year yields fell half a basis point

to 4.4554%.

Oil prices were down slightly, with worries about demand in

top importer China offseting support from OPEC+ supply restraint

and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. crude lost 30 cents to settle at $81.91 a barrel

and Brent fell 18 cents to $84.85.

(Additional reporting by Isla Binnie in New York, Iain Withers

in London and and by Lisa Mattackal and Ankika Biswas in

Bengaluru and by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Christian

Schmollinger, Jamie Freed, Arun Koyyur, Susan Fenton, Will

Dunham and Tomasz Janowski)

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