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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, Wall St futures firm as more easing imminent
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, Wall St futures firm as more easing imminent
Sep 22, 2024 10:51 PM

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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

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Nikkei futures climb, S&P 500 futures up 0.3%

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Rate cuts expected in Switzerland and Sweden this week

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Host of Fed speakers due as market wagers on another 50bp

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Gold hits new record, oil up as Israel strikes Hezbollah

(Updates China rates, oil prices)

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Global stocks firmed in Asia

on Monday ahead of central bank meetings that are widely

expected to deliver two more rate cuts and key U.S. inflation

figures that should flash a green light for more easing there.

China's central bank lowered its 14-day repo rate by 10

basis points, a couple of days after disappointing markets by

not cutting longer-term rates.

Analysts cautioned the move was only catching up to an

already delivered cut to 7-day repo rates, but stocks

were happy for anything and added 0.3%.

A holiday in Japan made for thin trading and MSCI's broadest

index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added

0.3%, after bouncing 2.7% last week. Singapore's main index

climbed to its highest since late 2007.

Tokyo's Nikkei was shut but futures were

trading at 38,510 compared to a cash close of 37,723. The index

rallied 3.1% last week as the yen eased from its highs and the

Bank of Japan (BOJ) signalled it was in no rush to tighten

policy further.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5%, FTSE futures

0.3% and DAX futures 0.4%.

S&P 500 futures firmed 0.3% and Nasdaq futures

added 0.6%. The S&P is up 1% so far in September, historically

the weakest month for stocks, and has gained 19% year-to-date to

reach all-time highs.

More than 20 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges

on Friday, the busiest session since January 2021. Analysts at

BofA noted the S&P rises an average of 21% when there is no

recession in the 12-months after the start of Fed cuts.

Markets were still basking in the afterglow of the Federal

Reserve's half-point rate cut, with futures implying a 50%

probability it will deliver another outsized move in November.

"While the move was well flagged, its importance is hard to

overstate, given the Fed's role in USD liquidity conditions

worldwide," said Barclays economist Christian Keller.

"We note that initiating a cycle with a 50bp move without an

imminent financial crisis or jobs actually being lost is quite

unusual for the Fed," he added. "We thus think the step reveals

the Fed's determination to avoid a deterioration in labour

market conditions, or, in market jargon: to achieve a soft

landing."

At least nine Fed policy makers are speaking this week

including prepared remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, two

governors and New York Fed President John Williams.

MORE CUTS

Much will depend on what the Fed's preferred inflation

gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) show on

Friday. Analysts expect a 0.2% month-on-month rise taking the

annual pace to 2.7%, while the headline index is seen slowing to

just 2.3%.

The coming week also includes surveys on global

manufacturing, U.S. consumer confidence and durable goods.

The Swiss National Bank meets Thursday and markets are fully

priced for a quarter-point cut to 1.0%, with a 41% chance it

will ease by 50 basis points.

Sweden's central bank meets on Wednesday and is also

expected to ease by 25 basis points, again with some chance it

might go larger.

One bank not easing is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

which meets on Tuesday and is considered almost certain to hold

at 4.35% as inflation proves stubborn. (0#RBAWATCH>

Investors were also keeping a wary eye on negotiations to

avoid a U.S. government shut down with just days before the

current $1.2 trillion in funding runs out on Sept. 30.

Republican U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike

Johnson on Sunday proposed a three-month stopgap funding bill

but now it has to go to vote.

In currency markets, the dollar edged up 0.3% to 144.30 yen

, having bounced 2.2% last week from a 139.58 low. The

euro gained almost 3% last week to reach 161.09 yen,

while holding firm on the dollar at $1.1160.

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, which has a parliamentary

majority, will elect a new leader on Sept. 27, with the winner

to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

The U.S. rate cut combined with lower bond yields helped

keep gold up at an all-time peak of $2,630.93 an ounce.

Net long positions in Comex gold futures hit their highest

level in four years last week, suggesting some risk of a

pullback in the near term.

Oil prices firmed further, underpinned in part by tensions

in the Middle East as Israel struck Hezbollah targets. Oil

rallied around 4% last week on hopes lower borrowing costs would

support global economic growth and demand.

Brent added 60 cents to $75.09 a barrel, while U.S.

crude rose 63 cents to $71.63 per barrel.

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