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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
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Nikkei futures climb, S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
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Rate cuts expected in Switzerland and Sweden this week
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Host of Fed speakers due as market wagers on another 50bp
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Gold hits new record, oil up as Israel strikes Hezbollah
(Updates China rates, oil prices)
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Global stocks firmed in Asia
on Monday ahead of central bank meetings that are widely
expected to deliver two more rate cuts and key U.S. inflation
figures that should flash a green light for more easing there.
China's central bank lowered its 14-day repo rate by 10
basis points, a couple of days after disappointing markets by
not cutting longer-term rates.
Analysts cautioned the move was only catching up to an
already delivered cut to 7-day repo rates, but stocks
were happy for anything and added 0.3%.
A holiday in Japan made for thin trading and MSCI's broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added
0.3%, after bouncing 2.7% last week. Singapore's main index
climbed to its highest since late 2007.
Tokyo's Nikkei was shut but futures were
trading at 38,510 compared to a cash close of 37,723. The index
rallied 3.1% last week as the yen eased from its highs and the
Bank of Japan (BOJ) signalled it was in no rush to tighten
policy further.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5%, FTSE futures
0.3% and DAX futures 0.4%.
S&P 500 futures firmed 0.3% and Nasdaq futures
added 0.6%. The S&P is up 1% so far in September, historically
the weakest month for stocks, and has gained 19% year-to-date to
reach all-time highs.
More than 20 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges
on Friday, the busiest session since January 2021. Analysts at
BofA noted the S&P rises an average of 21% when there is no
recession in the 12-months after the start of Fed cuts.
Markets were still basking in the afterglow of the Federal
Reserve's half-point rate cut, with futures implying a 50%
probability it will deliver another outsized move in November.
"While the move was well flagged, its importance is hard to
overstate, given the Fed's role in USD liquidity conditions
worldwide," said Barclays economist Christian Keller.
"We note that initiating a cycle with a 50bp move without an
imminent financial crisis or jobs actually being lost is quite
unusual for the Fed," he added. "We thus think the step reveals
the Fed's determination to avoid a deterioration in labour
market conditions, or, in market jargon: to achieve a soft
landing."
At least nine Fed policy makers are speaking this week
including prepared remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, two
governors and New York Fed President John Williams.
MORE CUTS
Much will depend on what the Fed's preferred inflation
gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) show on
Friday. Analysts expect a 0.2% month-on-month rise taking the
annual pace to 2.7%, while the headline index is seen slowing to
just 2.3%.
The coming week also includes surveys on global
manufacturing, U.S. consumer confidence and durable goods.
The Swiss National Bank meets Thursday and markets are fully
priced for a quarter-point cut to 1.0%, with a 41% chance it
will ease by 50 basis points.
Sweden's central bank meets on Wednesday and is also
expected to ease by 25 basis points, again with some chance it
might go larger.
One bank not easing is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
which meets on Tuesday and is considered almost certain to hold
at 4.35% as inflation proves stubborn. (0#RBAWATCH>
Investors were also keeping a wary eye on negotiations to
avoid a U.S. government shut down with just days before the
current $1.2 trillion in funding runs out on Sept. 30.
Republican U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike
Johnson on Sunday proposed a three-month stopgap funding bill
but now it has to go to vote.
In currency markets, the dollar edged up 0.3% to 144.30 yen
, having bounced 2.2% last week from a 139.58 low. The
euro gained almost 3% last week to reach 161.09 yen,
while holding firm on the dollar at $1.1160.
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, which has a parliamentary
majority, will elect a new leader on Sept. 27, with the winner
to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
The U.S. rate cut combined with lower bond yields helped
keep gold up at an all-time peak of $2,630.93 an ounce.
Net long positions in Comex gold futures hit their highest
level in four years last week, suggesting some risk of a
pullback in the near term.
Oil prices firmed further, underpinned in part by tensions
in the Middle East as Israel struck Hezbollah targets. Oil
rallied around 4% last week on hopes lower borrowing costs would
support global economic growth and demand.
Brent added 60 cents to $75.09 a barrel, while U.S.
crude rose 63 cents to $71.63 per barrel.