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US jobs reports show mixed picture ahead of Friday's
payrolls
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S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones all open in red
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European shares fall
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New US tariff report also in mix
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UK assets underperform - gilts, stocks, pound all fall
By Alun John
LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - A global bond selloff
continued on Wednesday, hurting stocks and boosting the dollar,
on the back of evidence the U.S. economy is in good health,
likely limiting further rate cuts, and renewed reports about
U.S. tariffs.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to as high as
4.73%, its highest since April 2024, building on Tuesday's 7
basis point (bp) rise.
The selloff in bonds on Wednesday accelerated after a CNN
report that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is considering
declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal
justification for a series of universal tariffs on allies and
adversaries.
This feeds into investor uncertainty, which, say analysts,
is already causing a higher "term premia" - effectively the
additional yield investors demand to account for the uncertainty
of investing in longer-dated bonds.
The report, and higher yields, also hurt shares, with the
three main U.S. share benchmarks all opening slightly lower,
extending declines from Tuesday.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.12% in the first few minutes of
trading to 5,900 and the Nasdaq shed 0.1% to 19,460.
European stocks also dropped 0.5%, giving back an
earlier gain, after the CNN report.
STRONG ECONOMY
Also weighing on U.S. Treasuries in recent weeks has been
strong U.S. economic data, which has caused investors to scale
back their expectations for the size of Federal Reserve rate
cuts this year.
Markets are only fully pricing in one 25-bp rate cut in
2025, and see around a 60% chance of a second.
That picture was complicated somewhat on Wednesday by the
ADP National Employment Report showing private payrolls rose by
122,000 jobs last month, lower than the 140,000 economists
polled by Reuters were expecting.
However, a separate Labor Department report showed jobless
claims stood at 201,000 last week, lower than estimates of
218,000, and numbers on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings
unexpectedly increased in November.
Friday's non-farm payrolls data will give the most
definitive picture.
"Obviously the big theme of the week is higher U.S. yields,
and stronger dollar," said Samy Chaar, chief economist at
Lombard Odier.
"The U.S. cycle is an income-growth consumption-led cycle,
and when you look at it from that angle it gives a lot of
importance to labour markets - for it to continue people need to
have a job and incomes, and that's why the market reacted so
much to the (job openings) data."
"The second theme is the erratic and volatile political
comments."
European wind stocks took a beating Wednesday after Trump
called turbines 'garbage' while defence stocks gained
after he called for higher defence spending from NATO allies.
BRITISH SELLOFF
The reaction in British markets on Wednesday was more
dramatic than that elsewhere.
The British 10-year gilt yield rose over 11 bps
to 4.80%, its highest since 2008, while the pound fell 1.15%
against the dollar to $1.2335, and domestic-focused
British midcap stocks dropped 1.76%.
German 10-year Bund yields rose just 4 bps and the euro
EUR=EBS> dropped 0.5% to $1.0286.
"It seems there's a lot of negativity around the UK," said
Lyn Graham-Taylor, senior rates strategist at Rabobank
"This increase in yields is increasing the chance of the
fiscal headroom falling to nothing so there's an increased
probability of having to raise taxes or cut spending in the next
budget."
Asian stocks had struggled earlier in the day, with MSCI's
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
dropping 0.57%.
Chinese markets were again the focus. Onshore blue-chips and
Hong Kong were each down 1.7% earlier in the day, but rebounded
and closed only just in negative territory as traders digested
Beijing's latest efforts to soothe investor nerves after a
stuttering economic start to the year.
In commodities, oil prices initially rose on reduced supply
from Russia and OPEC members, but then lost ground in the face
of the stronger dollar.
Brent crude was last up 0.1% at $77.16 per barrel,
while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was flat
at $74.30.
(Additional reporting by Ankur Bannerjee in Singapore and Harry
Robertson in London. Editing by Mark Potter)