(Adds quote, updates prices)
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ECB cuts euro zone rates for first time since 2019
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World stocks hit record high
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Nvidia ( NVDA ) overtakes Apple as world's second most valuable
firm
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Graphic: World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
By Marc Jones and Koh Gui Qing
NEW YORK/LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - World stocks hit an
all-time high and the euro rose on Thursday after the European
Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in nearly
five years, but also signalled that further moves could take a
while.
ECB policymakers duly delivered their widely-flagged
quarter-point cut to 3.75%, but markets were left feeling a
little deflated after the bank also said it now did not expect
inflation to fall back to target until 2026.
It was enough to snip the pan-European STOXX 600's
gains back to 0.6%, while the euro inched up to almost $1.0890
against the dollar and government bond yields - which reflect
borrowing costs and move inversely to price - ticked up too.
MSCI's 47-country main world index rose as
much as 0.3% to a record high. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index
was flat near an all-time high, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average added 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index
dipped 0.1%, also from an all-time high.
Chip maker Nvidia ( NVDA ) fell 0.8% from a record high,
after crossing $3 trillion in market valuation in the previous
session.
"The focus for markets (now) is whether they will find room
to cut in September," Saltmarsh Economics' Marchel Alexandrovich
said.
He said it wasn't a surprise that inflation forecasts had
been revised up. "Inflation is proving sticky and that makes it
difficult."
The euro's gain, after a 2% rise over the last month, took
it to $1.0888, although most traders were sitting on their
hands, with President Christine Lagarde stressing at the start
of her post-meeting press conference: "We are not pre-committing
to a particular rate path".
Stronger-than-expected data over the last few weeks, plus
Thursday's increase in the ECB's in-house inflation forecasts,
have raised doubts about how many more cuts will be justified
this year.
"This was a cautious cut," said Samuel Zief, head of global
FX strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. "We currently think
that September could be next. But (there is) no reason to expect
significant reductions any time soon with growth actually
picking up steam of late."
GOLDILOCKS STORY
The Bank of Canada pipped the ECB to become the first G7
country to cut rates in this cycle on Wednesday. The U.S.
Federal Reserve meets next week, although is not expected to
move until September, at the earliest.
"This move ahead of the Fed was not at all obvious just
three months ago," said Eric Vanraes, the head of fixed income
at Eric Sturdza Investments. "We still believe that the first
rate cut will come before the fourth quarter, in September."
By contrast, the debate at the Bank of Japan, which meets
the week after, will be about whether to raise rates, and when.
Canada's dollar trimmed some of the losses from its
post-cut dip on Thursday to stand at C$1.37 per U.S. dollar.
In the bond markets, Germany's 2-year government bond yield
, which is sensitive to policy rate expectations, was
up nearly 5 bp at 3.027%. It hit 3.125% last Friday, its highest
since mid-November.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were a touch higher
at 4.3045%, although that was still near their lowest in two
months, after data this week hinted that the U.S. labour market
is finally cooling.
That included private U.S. payrolls on Wednesday and a
report on Tuesday that showed job openings fell in April to
their lowest in more than three years.
Markets are now pricing nearly two quarter-point Fed cuts
again this year, with a September move seen as a 68% chance
compared to 47.5% last week.
"We're still in the 'Goldilocks' range, so bad economic news
has been good for equities, as Fed rate cuts are back on the
table," said Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific investment strategist at
Legal and General Investment Management.
Investor attention will soon turn to the U.S. nonfarm
payroll report for May on Friday, with a Reuters poll of
economists expecting it to have risen by 185,000 jobs.
"We need that to be around 100-150k to maintain the
Goldilocks narrative," Bennett said. "Much higher than that and
yields could move back up, but if we get zero or negative, then
we could be talking about a hard landing again."
In commodities, Brent crude futures rose as much as
1% to $79.19 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
futures rose 1% to $74.85.
Gold gained 0.3% to $2,362.4 per ounce after a 1%
rise previously, while the cryptocurrency bitcoin was at
$71,415, shuffling back towards March's record high.