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GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks at record high after cautious ECB rate cut
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GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks at record high after cautious ECB rate cut
Jun 6, 2024 8:28 AM

(Adds quote, updates prices)

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ECB cuts euro zone rates for first time since 2019

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World stocks hit record high

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Nvidia ( NVDA ) overtakes Apple as world's second most valuable

firm

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Graphic: World FX rates http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Marc Jones and Koh Gui Qing

NEW YORK/LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - World stocks hit an

all-time high and the euro rose on Thursday after the European

Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in nearly

five years, but also signalled that further moves could take a

while.

ECB policymakers duly delivered their widely-flagged

quarter-point cut to 3.75%, but markets were left feeling a

little deflated after the bank also said it now did not expect

inflation to fall back to target until 2026.

It was enough to snip the pan-European STOXX 600's

gains back to 0.6%, while the euro inched up to almost $1.0890

against the dollar and government bond yields - which reflect

borrowing costs and move inversely to price - ticked up too.

MSCI's 47-country main world index rose as

much as 0.3% to a record high. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index

was flat near an all-time high, the Dow Jones Industrial

Average added 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index

dipped 0.1%, also from an all-time high.

Chip maker Nvidia ( NVDA ) fell 0.8% from a record high,

after crossing $3 trillion in market valuation in the previous

session.

"The focus for markets (now) is whether they will find room

to cut in September," Saltmarsh Economics' Marchel Alexandrovich

said.

He said it wasn't a surprise that inflation forecasts had

been revised up. "Inflation is proving sticky and that makes it

difficult."

The euro's gain, after a 2% rise over the last month, took

it to $1.0888, although most traders were sitting on their

hands, with President Christine Lagarde stressing at the start

of her post-meeting press conference: "We are not pre-committing

to a particular rate path".

Stronger-than-expected data over the last few weeks, plus

Thursday's increase in the ECB's in-house inflation forecasts,

have raised doubts about how many more cuts will be justified

this year.

"This was a cautious cut," said Samuel Zief, head of global

FX strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. "We currently think

that September could be next. But (there is) no reason to expect

significant reductions any time soon with growth actually

picking up steam of late."

GOLDILOCKS STORY

The Bank of Canada pipped the ECB to become the first G7

country to cut rates in this cycle on Wednesday. The U.S.

Federal Reserve meets next week, although is not expected to

move until September, at the earliest.

"This move ahead of the Fed was not at all obvious just

three months ago," said Eric Vanraes, the head of fixed income

at Eric Sturdza Investments. "We still believe that the first

rate cut will come before the fourth quarter, in September."

By contrast, the debate at the Bank of Japan, which meets

the week after, will be about whether to raise rates, and when.

Canada's dollar trimmed some of the losses from its

post-cut dip on Thursday to stand at C$1.37 per U.S. dollar.

In the bond markets, Germany's 2-year government bond yield

, which is sensitive to policy rate expectations, was

up nearly 5 bp at 3.027%. It hit 3.125% last Friday, its highest

since mid-November.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were a touch higher

at 4.3045%, although that was still near their lowest in two

months, after data this week hinted that the U.S. labour market

is finally cooling.

That included private U.S. payrolls on Wednesday and a

report on Tuesday that showed job openings fell in April to

their lowest in more than three years.

Markets are now pricing nearly two quarter-point Fed cuts

again this year, with a September move seen as a 68% chance

compared to 47.5% last week.

"We're still in the 'Goldilocks' range, so bad economic news

has been good for equities, as Fed rate cuts are back on the

table," said Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific investment strategist at

Legal and General Investment Management.

Investor attention will soon turn to the U.S. nonfarm

payroll report for May on Friday, with a Reuters poll of

economists expecting it to have risen by 185,000 jobs.

"We need that to be around 100-150k to maintain the

Goldilocks narrative," Bennett said. "Much higher than that and

yields could move back up, but if we get zero or negative, then

we could be talking about a hard landing again."

In commodities, Brent crude futures rose as much as

1% to $79.19 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude

futures rose 1% to $74.85.

Gold gained 0.3% to $2,362.4 per ounce after a 1%

rise previously, while the cryptocurrency bitcoin was at

$71,415, shuffling back towards March's record high.

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